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For release: 10 a.m.,
Contact: Katherine Dibling, senior media representative, (215) 574-4119
The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks more positive now than it did just three months ago, according to 43 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in the First Quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Assistant Director and Manager, Real-Time Data Research Center, Tom Stark:
"The forecasters have increased their projections for economic growth and cut their projections for unemployment.
The forecast revisions are most pronounced for this quarter: Real GDP is expected to rise 3.6 percent at an annual rate, up from the previous projection of 2.4 percent, and unemployment is expected to average 9.3 percent, down from the previous projection of 9.5 percent."
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is a quarterly survey of economic forecasters from across the country. Participants are asked to provide their projections for a broad range of macroeconomic variables including real GDP, nonfarm payroll employment, and inflation indicators such as CPI and PCE. It is the oldest survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.