For release: 10 a.m.,
Contact: Katherine Dibling, senior media representative, (215) 574-4119
The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did just three months ago, according to the 36 participants in the Third Quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters. The downward revision to growth is accompanied by weaker conditions in the labor market.
The forecasters have reduced their projections for Inflation, but they see little risk of deflation. In addition, they report a slightly higher chance of a downturn.
For commentary on the third quarter survey, listen to the podcast.
Assistant Director and Manager, Real-Time Data Research Center, Tom Stark:
“The panelists have marked down their projections for growth and they see higher unemployment. Also, we see a slightly higher probability of a downturn in the next two quarters, as well as reduced expectations for inflation. However, it is important to keep things in perspective. The forecasters continue to see the economy growing steadily. They have raised their odds of a downturn but they do not think it is likely. The forecasters continue to project a downward path for unemployment. And, yes, they have reduced their projections for inflation but they do not believe that deflation is likely. ”
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is a quarterly survey of economic forecasters from across the country. Participants are asked to provide their projections for a broad range of macroeconomic variables including real GDP, nonfarm payroll employment, and inflation indicators such as CPI and PCE. It is the oldest survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.