At this conference, the Philadelphia Fed brought together researchers doing real-time data analysis on topics related to macroeconomics, forecasting, and monetary policy. Real-time data analysis is research that accounts explicitly for data revisions. The conference focused on five topics: (1) data revisions; (2) forecasting; (3) policy analysis; (4) financial research; and (5) macroeconomic research. For each topic, researchers presented one or two papers that use real-time data.
- Jon Faust, John Rogers, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board)
"News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements"
- Karen E. Dynan and Douglas W. Elmendorf (Federal Reserve Board)
"Do Provisional Estimates of Output Miss Economic Turning Points?"
- Evan Koenig (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), Sheila Dolmas, and Jeremy Piger
"The Use and Abuse of ‘Real-Time’ Data in Economic Forecasting"
- Athanasios Orphanides (Federal Reserve Board) and Simon van Norden (HEC)
"The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gaps in Real Time"
- Ben Bernanke (Princeton) and Jean Boivin (Columbia)
"Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment"
- Yash Mehra (Richmond Fed)
"The Taylor Principle, Interest Rate Smoothing, and Fed Policy in the 1970s and 1980s"
- Peter Christoffersen (McGill), Eric Ghysels (North Carolina), and Norm Swanson (Purdue)
"Let’s Get ‘Real’ About Using Economic Data"
- Torben Andersen (Northwestern), Tim Bollerslev (Duke), Frank Diebold (Penn), and Clara Vega (Penn)
"Micro Effects of Macro Announcements"
- Dean Croushore and Tom Stark (Philadelphia Fed)
"A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?"