The Economy
We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.
Working Paper
Inference Based on Scale, Label, and Economic Restrictions
WP 26-36 – The results of nearly 100 prominent studies in empirical macroeconomics have been called into question by Baumeister and Hamilton (2018).
Working Paper
The Dynamics of Ample Reserves
WP 26-34 – How monetary policy is implemented can have significant implications for the dynamics of the central bank’s balance sheet.
Research
Our Research Department's high-quality academic and original research supports the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank's leadership as they address economic, finance, and public policy issues.
Indices
State Coincident Indexes
24 Jul ’26
Monthly index of general economic conditions for each of the 50 states
Working Paper
Is Mortgage Lock-In Responsible for Housing Market Tightness?
WP 26-33 – Elevated mortgage rates discourage homeowners from moving, as relocating triggers a reset of mortgage terms — a phenomenon termed “lock-in.”
COVID-19
COVID-19 and the Philadelphia Fed
Get the Philadelphia Fed’s latest information, resources, and research on the coronavirus pandemic's impact on businesses, households, and communities.
Event
Oct
9-10
2026
2026 Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Article
Forecasting Recessions Using an “At-Risk” Transformation to Identify Unusual Weakness in Indicators
07 Jul ’26
Research in Focus — The Philadelphia Fed’s Minchul Shin and his coauthor forecast recessions by transforming economic indicators into binary signals, often outperforming alternative methods.
Working Paper
Underwater: Strategic Trading and Risk Management in Bank Securities Portfolios
WP 25-31/R – We use bond-level data to study how U.S. banks managed securities portfolio risk during the 2022–23 interest-rate surge.
Research
Research Assistant Opportunities for College Graduates
Working as a research assistant at the Philadelphia Fed is a rewarding experience, whichever career path you ultimately choose to pursue.