The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Ideas and Firm Dynamics When It Takes Two to Tango

WP 26-44 – Teams of inventors now produce over 80 percent of U.S. patents, up from just 45 percent in 1976. Over the same period, inventor employment has become increasingly concentrated in large firms, rising six times more than overall employment concentration.

Debt Dictionaries

WP 26-43 – Stock and bond investors treat different aspects of firm information as value-relevant, generating distinct mappings of text to returns (“dictionaries”).

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

How Do Large, Sophisticated Cryptocurrency Trades Impact Broader DeFi Market Dynamics?

WP 26-42 – Using transaction-level data for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) matched to public “Whale Alert” signals, we examine how large-scale cryptocurrency trades shape market microstructure.

Event

Oct

9-10

2026

2026 Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Regional Economics

Working Paper

The Bronx is Burning: Urban Disinvestment Effects of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plans

WP 25-16/R – We study the unintended effects of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plans developed by 26 states in the 1960s to address insurance redlining in urban neighborhoods.

The Economy

Working Paper

An Auditable AI Agent Loop for Empirical Economics: A Case Study in Forecast Combination

WP 26-41 – AI coding agents, general-purpose assistants that write and execute code, make empirical specification search fast and cheap, but they also widen hidden researcher degrees of freedom.