The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

As Jobs Become More Portable, Many Workers Move to New Neighborhoods — with Surprising Results for Overall Welfare

Research in Focus — By measuring the economic effects of labor migration patterns, two economists reveal the unexpected: Remote jobs, and the relocations they stimulate, can reduce welfare inequality.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Inference Based on Scale, Label, and Economic Restrictions

WP 26-36 – The results of nearly 100 prominent studies in empirical macroeconomics have been called into question by Baumeister and Hamilton (2018).

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Monetary Policy

Working Paper

The Dynamics of Ample Reserves

WP 26-34 – How monetary policy is implemented can have significant implications for the dynamics of the central bank’s balance sheet.

Event

Oct

9-10

2026

2026 Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Regional Economics

Working Paper

Is Mortgage Lock-In Responsible for Housing Market Tightness?

WP 26-33 – Elevated mortgage rates discourage homeowners from moving, as relocating triggers a reset of mortgage terms — a phenomenon termed “lock-in.”

Underwater: Strategic Trading and Risk Management in Bank Securities Portfolios

WP 25-31/R – We use bond-level data to study how U.S. banks managed securities portfolio risk during the 2022–23 interest-rate surge.