The Economy
We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.
Working Paper
Are Fiscal Transfers Inflationary?
WP 26-23 – We assess the inflationary effects of fiscal transfers by leveraging advances in the identification of fiscal policy shocks within the recently proposed rotation-invariant time-varying structural vector autoregression.
Article
AI-Enabled Fraud Is On the Rise — Here’s How to Beat It
A February 2024 deepfake scam in Hong Kong, where an employee wired $3.2 million to fraudsters posing as executives, highlights a critical reality: AI-enabled fraud is on the rise.
Research
Our Research Department's high-quality academic and original research supports the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank's leadership as they address economic, finance, and public policy issues.
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
30 Apr ’26
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Article
How Quantum Computing Threatens Cryptography
Economic Insights — Quantum computers may one day decrypt our data, but banks can mitigate this risk.
COVID-19
COVID-19 and the Philadelphia Fed
Get the Philadelphia Fed’s latest information, resources, and research on the coronavirus pandemic's impact on businesses, households, and communities.
Working Paper
International Currency Dominance
WP 26-21 – We propose a model of the international monetary system to study currency competition and the emergence of a dominant currency.
Working Paper
Why Is Manufacturing Productivity Growth So Low?
WP 26-19 – This paper argues that mismeasured price indexes account for much of the apparent weakness in U.S. manufacturing productivity. Adjusting for quality improvements raises annual productivity growth estimates by up to 0.8 percentage point.
Research
Research Assistant Opportunities for College Graduates
Working as a research assistant at the Philadelphia Fed is a rewarding experience, whichever career path you ultimately choose to pursue.