The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Regional Economics

Working Paper

The Impact of Early Investments in Urban School Systems in the United States

WP 26-15 – Urban schools increased per pupil expenditures by 70 percent from 1918 to 1924, and these resources led to greater educational attainment and higher wages for less advantaged children.

In the Postcrisis Era, Are Markets for Credit Derivatives Better at Reducing Risks? A Look at Settlement Cycles Suggests There Is Room for Improvement

Research in Focus — Through an analysis of trading activity across derivatives markets, three economists explain how risk levels can remain elevated, even after regulatory reforms.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Housing Wealth and Consumption: The Role of Heterogeneous Credit Constraints

WP 22-34/R – Individual heterogeneity explains the link between declines in consumption and house values in 2006–2009. Credit constraints triggered by falling house prices and a few very constrained households are important. Wealth effects play no role.

Event

Apr

3

2026

2026 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

On the Wisdom of Crowds (of Economists)

WP 26-14 – Averaging economists’ predictions boosts accuracy, and our theory shows how quickly those improvements accumulate.

Regional Economics

Working Paper

Evaluating Transportation Improvements Within Cities Using Quantitative Spatial Models

WP 26-13 – Quantitative spatial models (QSMs) can assess the equilibrium impacts of transportation infrastructure within cities. I describe a simple QSM and identify common weaknesses and promising future directions for research.