The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

The Health Channel of Business Cycles

WP 26-32 – We document that economic contractions causally worsen health among working-age adults and that poor health predicts negative labor market outcomes. These findings reveal a health channel of business cycles.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Pricing-to-Market in Business Cycle Models

WP 26-31 – We evaluate several leading microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms embedded in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by real and financial shocks.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Stablecoins and the Future of the Dollar

Economic Insights — Since they exploded in popularity, stablecoins have been playing a growing role in the real economy.

Event

Oct

9-10

2026

2026 Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Felt but Unseen: The Lesser-Known Forces Influencing Home Prices

Research in Focus — Two economists deconstruct the basic framework of home prices. Their nationwide analysis yields surprising insights into the elements that make up a home's selling price.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Large SVARs

WP 26-04/R – We develop a new algorithm to analyze economic data using SVAR models identified with sign restrictions. We demonstrate its usefulness on a small SVAR of the world oil market and a large SVAR of the U.S. economy.