The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Monetary Policy

Working Paper

Are Fiscal Transfers Inflationary?

WP 26-23 – We assess the inflationary effects of fiscal transfers by leveraging advances in the identification of fiscal policy shocks within the recently proposed rotation-invariant time-varying structural vector autoregression.

A pink and blue computer chip with AI written on top.

AI-Enabled Fraud Is On the Rise — Here’s How to Beat It

A February 2024 deepfake scam in Hong Kong, where an employee wired $3.2 million to fraudsters posing as executives, highlights a critical reality: AI-enabled fraud is on the rise.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

How Quantum Computing Threatens Cryptography

Economic Insights — Quantum computers may one day decrypt our data, but banks can mitigate this risk.

Event

May

14-15

2026

Mortgage Market Research Conference

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Monetary Policy

Working Paper

International Currency Dominance

WP 26-21 – We propose a model of the international monetary system to study currency competition and the emergence of a dominant currency.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Why Is Manufacturing Productivity Growth So Low?

WP 26-19 – This paper argues that mismeasured price indexes account for much of the apparent weakness in U.S. manufacturing productivity. Adjusting for quality improvements raises annual productivity growth estimates by up to 0.8 percentage point.