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Saturday, February 11, 2012

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Home > Research & Data > Real-Time Data Research Center > Survey of Professional Forecasters > Historical Data Files for the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Historical Data Files for the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Click on the desired variable name to go to a separate page for data downloads.

U.S. Business Indicators

• Nominal Gross National Product/Gross Domestic Product (NGDP)
• Price Index for Gross National Product/Gross Domestic Product (PGDP)
• Corporate Profits After Tax (CPROF)
• Civilian Unemployment Rate (UNEMP)
• Nonfarm Payroll Employment (EMP)
• Industrial Production Index (INDPROD)
• Housing Starts (HOUSING)
• 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (TBILL)
• AAA Corporate Bond Yield (BOND)
• BAA Corporate Bond Yield (BAABOND)
• 10-Year Treasury Bond Rate (TBOND)

Real GDP and Its Components

• Real Gross National Product/Gross Domestic Product (RGDP)
• Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RCONSUM)
• Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment (RNRESIN)
• Real Residential Fixed Investment (RRESINV)
• Real Federal Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment (RFEDGOV)
• Real State and Local Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment (RSLGOV)
• Real Change in Private Inventories (RCBI)
• Real Net Exports of Goods and Services (REXPORT)

CPI and PCE Inflation

• CPI Inflation Rate (CPI)
• Core CPI Inflation Rate (CORECPI)
• PCE Inflation Rate (PCE)
• Core PCE Inflation Rate (COREPCE)

Long-term Inflation Forecasts

• 5-Year CPI Inflation Rate (CPI5YR)
• 5-Year PCE Inflation Rate (PCE5YR)
• 10-Year CPI Inflation Rate (CPI10)
• 10-Year PCE Inflation Rate (PCE10)

Additional Long-term Forecasts

• 10-Year Real GDP Growth Rate (RGDP10)
• 10-Year Productivity Growth (PROD10)
• 10-Year Stock Return (STOCK10)
• 10-Year Bond Return (BOND10)
• 10-Year Bill Return (BILL10)

Equilibrium Unemployment

• Natural Rate of Unemployment (UBAR)

Probability on Ranges

• Probability of Changes in Real GDP (PRGDP): annual-average over annual-average real GDP growth
• Probability of Changes in GDP Price Index (PRPGDP): annual-average over annual-average PGDP growth
• Probability of Core CPI Inflation (PRCCPI): Q4/Q4 core CPI inflation
• Probability of Core PCE Inflation (PRCPCE): Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation
• Probability of Civilian Unemployment Rate (PRUNEMP): annual average civilian unemployment rate

Anxious Index

• Probability of a Decline in RGDP (one quarter to the next)

Return to the main page for the Survey of Professional Forecasters.