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Academic Bibliography

The following list contains academic articles that either discuss or use the data generated by the Livingston Survey. Good background articles on the early years of the survey as well as the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s current role are contained in Taylor (1992) and Croushore (1997). PDF

The Livingston Survey is one of the time series used in the empirical research on the formation of macroeconomic expectations. Other important series are the Survey of Professional Forecasters, also conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. A page similar to this one and related to research that uses the Survey of Professional Forecasters is also available.

The following bibliography consists of all papers we know of that use the Livingston data. Any help with this page would be greatly appreciated.

All correspondence and questions can be directed to phil.liv@phil.frb.org. E-mail

Sources using Livingston data include:

Ang, Andrew, Geert Bekaert, and Min Wei. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets, or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (2007), pp. 1163 - 1212.

Ball, Laurence, and Dean Croushore. "Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 5344, November 1995.

Batchelor, Roy A., and Pami Dua. "Household Versus Economist Forecasts of Inflation: A Reassessment," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 21 (1989), pp. 252-7.

Ben-Zion, Uri. "Recent Literature on the Impact of Taxation and Inflation on Interest Rates," in Vito Tanzi, ed., Taxation, Inflation, and Interest Rates.Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1984.

Bomberger, William A. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 28 (1996), pp. 381-92.

Bomberger, William A., and William J. Frazer. "Interest Rates, Uncertainty, and the Livingston Data," Journal of Finance 36 (1981), pp. 661-75.

Bond, Michael T., and Gerald E. Smolen. "The Fisher Effect: Inverted or Not," Review of Business & Economic Research (1992), pp. 58-63.

Brooking, Carl G., and Patrick A. Taylor. "On the Necessity of Estimating Expected Inflation in Assessing the Value of Lost Earnings," Paper presented at the Southeast Federation of Administrative Disciplines Meeting, New Orleans, March 1989.

Brown, Bryan W., and Shlomo Maital. "What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations," Econometrica 49 (1981), pp. 491-504.

Bryan, Michael F., and William T. Gavin. "Comparing Inflation Expectations of Households and Economists: Is a Little Knowledge a Dangerous Thing?" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Review (3rd quarter 1986a), pp.14-19.

Bryan, Michael F., and William T. Gavin. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 18 (1986b), pp. 539-44.

Bryan, Michael F., and Linsey Molloy. "Mirror, Mirror, Who's the Best Forecaster of Them All?" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, March 15, 2007.

Cargill, Thomas F,. and Robert A. Meyer, "Forecast Evaluation of Livingston Data on Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Decision Sciences 16 (1985), pp. 161-76.

Cargill, Thomas F., and Robert A. Meyer, "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Portfolio Planning Models," Journal of Economics and Business 35 (1983), pp. 399-411.

Cargill, Thomas F., and Robert A. Meyer. "Interest Rates and Uncertainty: Nominal and Risk- Adjusted Yields," West Coast Academic/Federal Reserve Economic Research Seminar Series (No. 6), San Francisco, CA: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1982.

Cargill, Thomas F., and Robert A. Meyer. "The Term Structure of Inflationary Expectations and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance 35 (1980), pp. 57-70.

Carlino, Gerald A. "Interest Rate Effects and Intertemporal Consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics 9 (1982), pp. 223-34.

Carlson, John A. "Expected Inflation and Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry 17 (1979), pp. 597- 608.

Carlson, John A. "A Study of Price Forecasts," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 1 (Winter 1977), p.27-56.

Carlson, John A. "Are Price Expectations Normally Distributed?" Journal of the American Statistical Association 70 (1975), pp. 749-54.

Caskey, John. "Modeling the Formation of Price Expectations: A Bayesian Approach," American Economic Review 75 (1985), pp. 768-76.

Cebula, Richard J. and Gerald Scott. "Interest Rates and the Net Deficit of All Government Levels Combined: An Empirical Note," Atlantic Economic Journal 20 (1992), p. 104.

Croushore, Dean. "The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years," Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review (March/April 1997), pp.15-26.

Croushore, Dean. "Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?" Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review (May/June 1996), pp. 15-25.

Cukierman, Alex. "Measuring Inflationary Expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics 17 (1986), pp. 315-24.

Cukierman, Alex, and Paul Wachtel. "Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review 69 (1979), pp. 595- 609.

De Bondt, Warner F. M., and Mary M. Bange. "Inflation Forecast Errors and Time Variation in Term Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 27 (1992), pp. 479-96.

De Bondt, Werner F. M. "What Do Economists Know About the Stock Market?" Journal of Portfolio Management (Winter 1981), pp. 84-91.

Dietrich, J. Kimball, and Douglas H. Joines. "Rational Expectations, Informational Efficiency, and Tests Using Survey Data: A Comment," Review of Economics and Statistics 65 (1983), pp. 525-29.

Dokko, Yoon, and Robert H. Edelstein. "How Well Do Economists Forecast Stock Market Prices? A Study of the Livingston Surveys," American Economic Review 79 (1989), pp. 865-71

Evans, Martin, and Paul Wachtel. "Inflation Regimes and the Sources of Inflation Uncertainty,"

Paper presented at the Conference on Inflation Uncertainty, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 4-6, 1992.

Fama, Eugene R., and Michael R. Gibbons. "A Comparison of Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Monetary Economics 13 (1984), pp. 327-48.

Figlewski, Stephen, and Paul Watchel. "Rational Expectations, Informational Efficiency, and Tests Using Survey Data: A Reply," Review of Economics and Statistics 65 (1983), pp. 529-31.

Figlewski, Stephen, and Paul Wachtel. "The Formation of Inflationary Expectations," Review of Economics and Statistics 63 (1981), pp. 1-10.

Fishe, Raymond P. H. "On Testing Hypotheses Using Livingston Price Expectations Data: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 16 (1984), pp. 520-27.

Fogler, H. Russell, et al. "A Theoretical Analysis of Real Estate Returns: Discussion," Journal of Finance 40 (1985), pp. 711-19.

Garner, C. Alan. "Forecast Dispersion as a Measure of Economic Uncertainty," Quarterly Review of Economics and Business 25 (1985), pp. 58-73.

Gibson, William E. "Interest Rates and Inflationary Expectations: New Evidence," American Economic Review 62 (1972), pp. 854-65.

Gramlich, Edward M. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household & Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 15 (1983), pp. 155- 73.

Gultekin, N. Bulent. "Stock Market Returns and Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Finance 38 (1983), pp.663-73.

Guzman, Giselle. "Internet Search Behavior as an Economic Forecasting Tool: The Case of Inflation Expectations," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 36 (December 2011): pp. 119-67.

Guzman, Giselle. "An Inflation Expectations Horserace," Unpublished manuscript. Columbia University, January 2010.

Hafer, R.W., and David H. Resler. "On the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts: A New Look at the Livingston Data," Southern Economic Journal 48 (1982), pp. 1049-56.

Hafer, R.W., and David H. Resler. "The 'Rationality' of Survey-Based Inflation Forecasts," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (November 1980), pp. 3-11.

Hall, Robert E. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy 96 (1988), pp. 339-57.

Hendershott, Patrick H., and Joe Peek. "Treasury Bill Rates in the 1970's and 1980's,"Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 24 (1992), pp. 195-215.

Hoelscher, Gregory. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 18 (1986), pp. 1-17.

Holland, Steven A. "The Changing Responsiveness of Wages to Price-Level Shocks: Explicit and Implicit Indexation," Economic Inquiry 26 (1988), pp. 265-79.

Holland, Steven A. "Wage Indexation and the Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Employment: An Empirical Analysis," American Economic Review 76 (1986), pp. 235-43.

Hvidding, James M. "The Livingston Price Expectations Data: Forecast Horizon and Rationality Tests," Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics 28 (1989), pp. 105-21.

Hvidding, James M. "Comparing Inflation Expectations of Households and Economists," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Review (Second Quarter 1988), pp. 37-40.

Jacobs, Rodney L., and Robert A. Jones. "Price Expectations in the United States: 1947-75," American Economic Review 70 (1980), pp. 269-77.

Keen, Howard. "Economists and Their Forecasts: Have the Projections Been That Bad?" Business Economics 22 (1987), pp. 37-40.

Keen, Howard. "Who Forecasts Best? Some Evidence from the Livingston Survey," Business Economics 16 (1981), pp. 24-29.

Lahiri, Kajal, and T. S. Chun. "Some Tests for Unbiasedness in the Long Run Using Survey Data," International Economic Journal 3 (Summer 1989), pp. 27-42.

Lahiri, Kajal, and Mark Zaporowski. "A Comparison of Alternative Real Rate Estimates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 50 (1988), pp. 303-12.

Lahiri, Kajal, and Mark Zaporowski. "More Flexible Use of Survey Data on Expectations in Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 5 (1987), pp. 69-76.

Lahiri, Kajal, and Mark Zaporowski. "A Note on the Variability of Real Interest Rates, Business Cycles, and the Livingston Data," Journal of Banking and Finance 8 (1984), pp. 483-90.

Lahiri, Kajal, and Raymond P.H. Fishe. "On the Estimation of Inflationary Expectations from Qualitative Responses,"Journal of Econometrics 16 (1981a), pp. 89-102.

Lahiri, Kajal. The Econometrics of Inflationary Expectations New York: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1981b.

Lahiri, Kajal. "Inflationary Expectations: Their Formation and Interest Rate Effects," American Economic Reveiw 66 (1976), pp. 124-31.

Lakonishok, Josef. "Stock Market Return Expectations: Some General Properties," Journal of Finance 35 (1980), pp. 921-31.

Leduc, Sylvain, Keith Sill, and Tom Stark. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the Inflation of the 1970s: Evidence From the Livingston Survey," Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (2007), pp. 433-459.

Levi, M.D., and John H. Makin. "Inflation Uncertainty and the Phillips Curve: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review 70 (1980), pp. 1022-27.

Levi, M.D., and John H. Makin. "Fisher, Phillips, Friedman, and the Measured Impact of Inflation on Interest," Journal of Finance 34 (1979), pp. 35-52.

Maddala, G. S. "Survey Data on Expectations: What Have We Learnt?" in Marc Nerlove, ed., Issues in Contemporary Economics, Macroeconomics, and Econometrics: Proceedings of the Ninth World Congress of the International Economic Association Vol 2. New York: Macmillian IEA, 1990, pp. 319-44.

Makin, John H., and Vito Tanzi. "Level and Volatility of U.S. Interest Rates: Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates, and Taxes," in Vito Tanzi, ed., Taxation, Inflation, and Interest Rates, Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1984.

Makin, John H. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982), pp. 126-34.

Mann, Steven. "Parameter Stability of Equity Returns and Inflation Forecasts," Northeast Journal of Business and Economics 13 (Fall/Winter 1986), pp. 21-28.

Mayer, Thomas. "Index Bonds and Heterogenous Agents," Working Paper Series #93-7, Department of Economics, University of California.

McGuire, Timothy. "Price Expectations and the Phillips Curve," in Karl Brunner and Alan Meltzer, eds., The Economics of Wage and Price Controls, Volume 2 Carnegie-Rochester Conferences on Public Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, Supplement (1976), pp. 65-114.

Melvin, Michael. "Expected Inflation, Taxation, and Interest Rates: The Delusion of Fiscal Illusion," American Economic Review 72 (1982), pp. 841-45.

Mishkin, Frederick S. "Are Market Forecasts Rational?" American Economic Review 71 (1981), pp. 295-305.

Mitchell, Douglas W., and Herbert E. Taylor. "Inflationary Expectations: Comment," American Economic Review 72 (1982), pp. 502-12.

Moore, Geoffrey, H. "Lesson of the 1973-76 Recession and Recovery," in W. Fellner, ed., Contemporary Economic Problems Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 1977, pp. 117-58.

Mullineaux, Donald J. "Inflation Expectations and Money Growth in the Untied States," American Economic Review 70 (1980), pp. 149-61.

Mullineaux, Donald J. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy 86 (1978), pp. 329-36.

Murphy, Austin J., and Robert T. Kleiman. "The Inflation-Hedging Characteristics of Equity REITs: An Empirical Study," Quarterly Review of Economics and Business 29 (Autumn 1989), pp. 95-101.

Murphy, Robert G. "The Expectations Theory of the Term Structure: Evidence from Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics 8 (1986), pp. 423-34.

Patterson, Kerry David. "The Development of Expectations Generating Schemes Which Are Asymptotically Rational," Scottish Journal of Political Economy 34 (1987), pp. 1-18.

Pearce, Douglas K. "An Empirical Analysis of Expected Stock Price Movements," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 16 (1984), pp. 317-27.

Pearce, Douglas K. "Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation: Forecast Performance and Interest Rate Effects," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 11 (1979), pp. 447-56.

Pearce, Douglas K., and Thomas O. Wisley. "A Note on Survey Forecasts of Retail Sales," Business Economics 17 (1982), pp. 56-60.

Peek, Joe, and James A. Wilcox. "The Degree of Fiscal Illusion in Interest Rates: Some Direct Estimates," American Economic Review 74 (1984), pp. 1061-66.

Peek, Joe, and James A. Wilcox. "The Postwar Stability of the Fisher Effect," Journal of Finance 38 (1983), pp. 1111-24.

Pesando, James E. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy 83 (1975), pp. 849-58.

Pyle, David H. "Observed Price Expectations and Interest Rates," Review of Economics and Statistics 54 (1972), pp. 275-80.

Resler, David H. "The Formation of Inflation Expectations," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (April 1980), pp. 2-12.

Rich, Robert W. "Another Look at the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Applied Economics 22 (1990), pp. 477-85.

Schroeter, John R., and Scott L. Smith. "A Reexamination of the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 18 (1986), pp. 239-46.

Sellekaerts, Willy, and Brigitte Sellekaerts. "Both Anticipated and Unanticipated Inflation Determine Relative Price Variability," Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics 6 (1984), pp. 500- 08.

Shome, Dilip K., Stephen D. Smith, and John M. Pinkerton. "The Purchasing Power of Money and Nominal Interest Rates: A Re-Examination," Journal of Finance 43 (1988), pp. 1113-26.

Singh, Harinder. "Investigating the Compatibility of Econometric Forecasts and Subjective Expectations: A Suggested Framework," Journal of Economic Psychology 9 (1988), pp. 233-49.

Söderlind, Paul. "Nominal Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics 100 (2), (1998), pp. 457-72.

Struth, Friedrich K. "Modeling Expectations Formation with Parameter-Adaptive Filters: An Empirical Application to the Livingston Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 46 (1984), pp. 211-39.

Taylor, Herb. "The Livingston Surveys: A History of Hopes and Fears," Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review (January/February 1992), pp. 15-27.

Tanzi, Vito. "Inflationary Expectations, Economic Activity, Taxes, and Interest Rates," American Economic Reveiw 70 (1980), pp. 12-22.

Turnovsky, Stephen J., and Michael L. Wachter. "A Test of the 'Expectations Hypothesis' Using Directly Observed Wage and Price Expectations," Review of Economics and Statistics 54 (1972), pp. 47-54.

Turnovsky, Stephen J. "Empirical Evidence on the Formation of Price Expectations," Journal of the American Statistical Association 65 (1970), pp. 1441-59.

VanderHoff, James. "Direct Evidence on Endogenous Expectation Formation Methods," Quarterly Review of Economics and Business 28 (1988), pp. 6-14.

Wachtel, Paul. "Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and Their Potential Usefulness," in Joel Popkin, ed., Analysis of Inflation: 1965-74 National Bureau of Economic Research, 1977.

Walraven, Nicholas. "Expected Appreciation for U.S. Housing," Economic Activity Section Working Paper No. 84. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics (February 1984).

Wilcox, James A. "Why Real Interest Rates Were So Low in the 1970's," American Economic Reveiw 73 (1983), pp. 44-53.

Wilcox, James A. "Nominal Interest Rate Effects on Real Consumer Expenditure," Business Economics 25 (1990), pp. 31-38.

Wong, Shee Q. "The Contribution of Inflation Uncertainty to the Variable Impacts of Money on Stock Prices," Journal of Financial Research 9 (1986), pp. 97-101.

  • Last update: June 26, 2012