Philadelphia Fed's Greenbook Data Set

The Philadelphia Fed's data set of Greenbook projections can be found in an Excel file, which you can download by clicking on the link below.

Philadelphia Fed's Greenbook Data Set (56 KB)
Errata (95 KB, 1 page)

The file contains two worksheets: one for real GNP/GDP and one for the GNP/GDP price index (they’re for GNP from 1965 to 1991 and for GDP from 1992 on). Each column corresponds to a different quarter: QTR0 is the current-quarter projection; QTR1 is one quarter ahead, etc. The projections cover a variety of horizons, depending on what the Fed was forecasting at the time. It varies from just the current quarter in 1965Q4, to as many as nine quarters ahead in the early 1990s. The forecasts are for quarter-over-quarter rates of change, in annualized percentage points.

Also, to line up the data set with the timing of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), it includes only the Greenbook projections from four of the FOMC meetings each year, based on which meeting was closest to the middle of the quarter (which is when SPF forecasts are collected). The projections run through November 2002, since the Fed releases them only after a five-year lag.

A Change to the Inflation Forecasts

In May 2004, we made a change to the inflation forecasts, which we record in the Excel file. Previously, the Greenbook forecasts for inflation made over the period 1996:Q2 to 1996:Q4 were those for the GDP implicit deflator. Now, we have replaced these forecasts for the implicit deflator with Greenbook forecasts for the chain-weighted price index. The inflation forecasts made since 1996:Q4 are also for the chain-weighted price index.

If you have any questions about the data, please contact Tom Stark at tom.stark@phil.frb.org.

Return to the main page for the Greenbook Data Sets.

Last update: June 2, 2009