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Saturday, September 20, 2014

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Philadelphia Fed's Greenbook Data Set

The Philadelphia Fed's data set of Greenbook projections can be found in an Excel file, which you can download by clicking on the link below.

The Excel workbook contains 16 worksheets. The first worksheet ("Documentation") includes descriptive information about the Greenbook projections, variable names, data transformations, units of the data, and how the data are organized. The next 15 worksheets contain the Greenbook projections: There is one worksheet for each variable. Each worksheet organizes the projections in the same manner: (1) Each row corresponds to a different Greenbook publication date; (2) The columns give the forecasts, which range from the forecast for the current quarter to the forecast for as many as nine quarters in the future. (The "current quarter" is the quarter in which the Greenbook was published.)

Also, to align the data set with the timing of the Philadelphia Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), it includes only the Greenbooks published from four FOMC meetings each year. We record the projections from the four Greenbooks each year with publication dates that are aligned (as closely as possible) with the quarterly deadline dates of the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

One word of warning: The correspondence of publication dates between the Greenbook and the SPF has weakened considerably since early 2000: Over this period, the Greenbook has often been published a few days before the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the latest quarterly data (known by SPF panelists) on the U.S. national income and product accounts. Thus, the SPF panelists have a slight information advantage over the Federal Reserve Board staff who prepare the Greenbook projections.

By rule, the projections from the Greenbook are released to the public with a lag of five years.

If you have any questions about the data, please contact Tom Stark at tom.stark@phil.frb.org. E-mail

Return to the main page for the Greenbook Data Sets.

  • Last update: March 28, 2014