Survey of Professional Forecasters

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The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters' web page offers the actual releases, documentation, mean and median forecasts of all the respondents as well as the individual responses from each economist. The individual responses are kept confidential by using identification numbers.

For additional information about the survey, send e-mail to: PHIL.SPF@phil.frb.org.

Introducing: An Industry Classification for the Survey of Professional Forecasters

In May 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released information about the industry affiliation of its panelists in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The new information associates each panelist with one of two broad industries: financial service provider and nonfinancial service provider. Read about this new classification. (PDF, 144 KB, 12 pages)

Recent Releases

2008

First Quarter 2008 | audio interview w/analyst

2007

The next release date is May 13, 2008 at 10:00 a.m. The complete list of release dates for 2008 is also available.

Also available:

Archived releases beginning with 1998

Historical Data

Median Forecasts, Mean Forecasts, Individual Forecasts
Probability Variables: Excel file containing mean probabilities of annual inflation and output growth falling into various ranges and the mean probability that quarter-over-quarter output growth will be negative.
Errata: Shows corrections to the historical data. (PDF, 88 KB, 26 pages)

Additional Historical Data

Short-Term and Long-Term Inflation Forecasts: Expected inflation over the next year and the next 10 years.
Anxious Index: The probability of a decline in real GDP in the quarter following the quarter in which the survey is taken. Includes chart and data.

Resources

Documentation: Provides information on all variables, transformations, and files in the survey. (PDF, 198 KB, 18 pages; last update: January 23, 2008)
Data Sources and Descriptions: Shows the specifications of the economic variables being forecast. (PDF, 24 KB, 3 pages)
Academic Bibliography: Contains a comprehensive list of academic articles that discuss or use the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Business Review article: "Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters"
Dates of Previous Surveys: Shows the release dates of previous surveys.
Examples of Survey Forms: See a recent survey form and several forms from the past.
Discussion of Survey of Professional Forecasters' Long-Term Forecast for Inflation
Responses to special questions regarding inflation targeting (from the Fourth Quarter 2007 survey)
Discussion of the New Industry Classification (PDF, 144 KB, 12 pages)

Call for Participants

We're looking for forecasters to join our panel.

Acknowledgments

Thanks to those who helped us with the data, including researchers who spotted data problems.