The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Underwater: Strategic Trading and Risk Management in Bank Securities Portfolios

WP 25-31 – We use bond-level data to study how U.S. banks manage their securities portfolios — focusing on the period of rapidly changing interest rates in 2022–23 — and examine the role of financial and regulatory frictions in shaping bank behavior.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Regional Economics

Working Paper

The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006

WP 24-12/R – This paper introduces new rental and home sales price series for the 20th century constructed from historical newspapers, and it explores the different rent and home price trajectories of cities across the United States.

Close-up of portraits from various bank notes

Monetary Policy Report: Using Rules for Benchmarking, September 2025

This special report highlights ongoing work to benchmark the stance of monetary policy using a range of policy rules that are widely employed in studies of monetary economics.

Event

Oct

3-4

2025

Frontiers in Machine Learning and Economics: Methods and Applications – 2025

The University of Chicago Booth School of Business | Chicago

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability tracks the rate at which U.S. workers transition from one employer to another in a given month.

Regional Economics

Working Paper

Capitalization as a Two-Part Tariff: The Equilibrium Structure of Housing Prices

WP 19-20/R – Housing is more expensive in desirable neighborhoods. But does the premium emerge at the extensive (per housing unit) or intensive (per living space) margin?