The Economy
We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.
Working Paper
At-Risk Transformation for U.S. Recession Prediction
WP 25-34 – We flip a large set of economic indicators into simple on/off “at-risk” signals and combine them to forecast U.S. recessions. This method is fast and robust, and it often beats complex machine-learning models.
Research
Our Research Department's high-quality academic and original research supports the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank's leadership as they address economic, finance, and public policy issues.
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
30 Oct ’25
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Working Paper
School Closures, Parental Labor Supply, and Time Use
WP 25-33 – This paper finds that the effect of 2020–21 school closures on parents’ hours worked was surprisingly small. How parents sustained their working time — using a mix of telework and informal child care — is a research priority.
COVID-19
COVID-19 and the Philadelphia Fed
Get the Philadelphia Fed’s latest information, resources, and research on the coronavirus pandemic's impact on businesses, households, and communities.
Article
Do Decentralized Ownership and Token-Based Financing Make Digital Platforms More Efficient?
20 Oct ’25
Research in Focus — Joseph Abadi of the Philadelphia Fed and his coauthor compare traditional digital platforms with innovative ones whose tokens can be used for transacting and governance.
Event
Jan
2
2026
Day-Ahead Conference on Financial Markets and Institutions
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Working Paper
Underwater: Strategic Trading and Risk Management in Bank Securities Portfolios
WP 25-31 – We use bond-level data to study how U.S. banks manage their securities portfolios — focusing on the period of rapidly changing interest rates in 2022–23 — and examine the role of financial and regulatory frictions in shaping bank behavior.
Data
Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability
12 Sep ’25
Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability tracks the rate at which U.S. workers transition from one employer to another in a given month.
Research
Research Assistant Opportunities for College Graduates
Working as a research assistant at the Philadelphia Fed is a rewarding experience, whichever career path you ultimately choose to pursue.