The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

 A blue and green digital pattern.

Fintech Conference Explores Innovations, Regulation, and the Future of Finance

The Philadelphia Fed’s Ninth Annual Fintech Conference took place on November 12 and 13. This conference series helps lead the conversation on what financial innovations mean for the future.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Decay, Abandonment, and . . . Profits? An Unlikely Combination in Real Estate Markets

Research in Focus — Can property insurance be too generous? Four economists look at the consequences of a program that promised outsized benefits.

Regional Economics

Working Paper

The Great Reshuffle: Remote Work and Residential Sorting

WP 25-36 – The increasing net migration toward suburbs and small cities has been driven disproportionately by high-income people. As a result, housing expenses and employment vary by region, tempering the welfare inequality caused by remote work.

Event

Jan

2

2026

Day-Ahead Conference on Financial Markets and Institutions

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

At-Risk Transformation for U.S. Recession Prediction

WP 25-34 – We flip a large set of economic indicators into simple on/off “at-risk” signals and combine them to forecast U.S. recessions. This method is fast and robust, and it often beats complex machine-learning models.

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability tracks the rate at which U.S. workers transition from one employer to another in a given month.