The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

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What About the Close Calls? In the Mortgage Market, the Behavior of One Group of Loan Applicants Is Particularly Enlightening

Research in Focus — By analyzing millions of mortgage applications, researchers find a set of applicants that can shed light on practical issues for policymakers, business executives, and lenders.

January 2026 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey

A monthly survey of nonmanufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District

The Effects of Wildfire and Distant Air Pollution on Household Financial Well-Being

WP 26-02 – While exposure to wildfire smoke is adverse to human health, little is known about related impacts on household economics.

Does Skin in the Game Align Incentives? The Case of CRE CLOs

WP 25-43 – This paper examines whether high levels of risk retention effectively align incentives in securitizations, using evidence from the $100 billion-plus billion commercial real estate collateralized loan obligation (CRE CLO) market.

Event

Jan

2

2026

Day-Ahead Conference on Financial Markets and Institutions

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

The Fed Put and Bank Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Loan Book

WP 25-42 – This paper shows that monetary policy influences bank credit policy through the risk-taking channel.

Monetary Policy Report: Using Rules for Benchmarking, December 2025

This special report highlights ongoing work to benchmark the stance of monetary policy using a range of policy rules that are widely employed in studies of monetary economics.