The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

In the Postcrisis Era, Are Markets for Credit Derivatives Better at Reducing Risks? A Look at Settlement Cycles Suggests There Is Room for Improvement

Research in Focus — Through an analysis of trading activity across derivatives markets, three economists explain how risk levels can remain elevated, even after regulatory reforms.

Housing Wealth and Consumption: The Role of Heterogeneous Credit Constraints

WP 22-34/R – Individual heterogeneity explains the link between declines in consumption and house values in 2006–2009. Credit constraints triggered by falling house prices and a few very constrained households are important. Wealth effects play no role.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

On the Wisdom of Crowds (of Economists)

WP 26-14 – Averaging economists’ predictions boosts accuracy, and our theory shows how quickly those improvements accumulate.

Event

Apr

3

2026

2026 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Regional Economics

Working Paper

Evaluating Transportation Improvements Within Cities Using Quantitative Spatial Models

WP 26-13 – Quantitative spatial models (QSMs) can assess the equilibrium impacts of transportation infrastructure within cities. I describe a simple QSM and identify common weaknesses and promising future directions for research.

The Economy

Working Paper

Polarized Contributions but Convergent Agendas

WP 26-05 – When politicians care only about winning, standard models predict that they adopt centrist policies. But if they also value raising campaign funds per se, their agendas diverge — possibly explaining polarization in the politics we see.