The Economy
We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.
Article
In the Postcrisis Era, Are Markets for Credit Derivatives Better at Reducing Risks? A Look at Settlement Cycles Suggests There Is Room for Improvement
10 Mar ’26
Research in Focus — Through an analysis of trading activity across derivatives markets, three economists explain how risk levels can remain elevated, even after regulatory reforms.
Working Paper
Housing Wealth and Consumption: The Role of Heterogeneous Credit Constraints
WP 22-34/R – Individual heterogeneity explains the link between declines in consumption and house values in 2006–2009. Credit constraints triggered by falling house prices and a few very constrained households are important. Wealth effects play no role.
Research
Our Research Department's high-quality academic and original research supports the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank's leadership as they address economic, finance, and public policy issues.
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
13 Mar ’26
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Working Paper
On the Wisdom of Crowds (of Economists)
WP 26-14 – Averaging economists’ predictions boosts accuracy, and our theory shows how quickly those improvements accumulate.
COVID-19
COVID-19 and the Philadelphia Fed
Get the Philadelphia Fed’s latest information, resources, and research on the coronavirus pandemic's impact on businesses, households, and communities.
Event
Apr
3
2026
2026 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Working Paper
Evaluating Transportation Improvements Within Cities Using Quantitative Spatial Models
WP 26-13 – Quantitative spatial models (QSMs) can assess the equilibrium impacts of transportation infrastructure within cities. I describe a simple QSM and identify common weaknesses and promising future directions for research.
Working Paper
Polarized Contributions but Convergent Agendas
WP 26-05 – When politicians care only about winning, standard models predict that they adopt centrist policies. But if they also value raising campaign funds per se, their agendas diverge — possibly explaining polarization in the politics we see.
Research
Research Assistant Opportunities for College Graduates
Working as a research assistant at the Philadelphia Fed is a rewarding experience, whichever career path you ultimately choose to pursue.