Forecasters Project Near-Steady Real GDP Growth and a Steady Unemployment Rate for 2024

The 23 participants in the December Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the second half of 2023, compared with their projections in the June 2023 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect 3.1 percent annualized growth in real GDP during the second half of 2023. They project 1.0 percent annualized growth over the first half of 2024. The forecasters predict that real GDP will grow 1.2 percent at an annual rate in the second half of 2024, nearly the same rate they see for the first half of the year.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston. It summarizes the forecast of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. It is published twice a year, in June and December.

Return to the main page for the Livingston Survey.