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2014 Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications

October 10-11, 2014
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Program

Friday, October 10

8:00-8:50 a.m.

Continental Breakfast

8:50-9:00 a.m.

Welcome

9:00-10:00 a.m.

Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks PDF

  • Giovanni Ricco (London Business School), Giovanni Callegari (European Central Bank), and Jacopo Cimadomo (European Central Bank)
  • Discussant: Thorsten Drautzburg (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

10:00-11:00 a.m.

Fundamental Disagreement PDF

  • Philippe Andrade (Banque de France), Richard Crump (FRB NY), Stefano Eusepi (FRB NY), and Emanuel Moench (FRB NY)
  • Discussant: Ricardo Reis (Columbia University)

11:00-11:30 a.m.

Refreshments

11:30-12:30 p.m.

Analyzing Data Revisions with a DSGE Model PDF

  • Dean Croushore (University of Richmond and FRB Philadelphia) and Keith Sill (FRB Philadelphia)
  • Discussant: Tara Sinclair (George Washington University)

12:30-2:30 p.m.

Lunch

Discussion by Athanasios Orphanides (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

2:30-3:30 p.m.

Are Professional Forecasters Bayesian? PDF

  • Sebastiano Manzan (City University of New York)
  • Discussant: Kajal Lahiri (State University of New York, Albany)

3:30-4:00 p.m.

Refreshments

4:00-5:00 p.m.

Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy PDF

  • Boragan Aruoba (University of Maryland and FRB Minneapolis)
  • Discussant: James Nason (North Carolina State University)

5:00-6:00 p.m.

Indeterminancy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation PDF

  • Thomas Lubik (FRB Richmond) and Christian Matthes (FRB Richmond)
  • Discussant: Athanasios Orphanides (MIT)

6:00-6:15 p.m.

Break

6:15 p.m.

Reception

Saturday, October 11

8:00-8:30 a.m.

Continental Breakfast

8:30-9:30 a.m.

Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break PDF

  • William Barnett (University of Kansas), Marcelle Chauvet University of California, Riverside), and Danilo Leiva-Leon (Bank of Canada)
  • Discussant: Tatevik Sekposyan (Texas A&M)

9:30-10:30 a.m.

Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment PDF

  • Knut Aastveit (Norges Bank), Francesco Ravazzolo (Norges Bank and BI Norwegian Business School), and Herman van Dijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam and VU University Amsterdam)
  • Discussant: Mark Watson (Princeton University)

10:30-11:00 a.m.

Refreshments

11:00-12:00 p.m.

Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models

  • Laura Liu (University of Pennsylvania), Roger Moon (University of Southern California), and Frank Schorfheide (Yonsei University)
  • Discussant: Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University)

12:00-1:00 p.m.

Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of the Sveriges Riksbank PDF

  • Jens Iversen, Stefan Laseen, Henrik Lundvall, and Ulf Soderstrom (Sveriges Riksbank)
  • Discussant: Edward Herbst (Federal Reserve Board)

1:00 p.m.

Lunch

  • Last update: October 2, 2014