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For release: 10 a.m., February 12, 2010
Contact: Katherine Dibling, senior media representative, (215) 574-4119
Philadelphia, Pa. - The 42 participants in the first-quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters, released today, project stronger growth in the U.S. economy in 2010 than they did in the fourth quarter of last year. The survey participants see the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.7 percent over each of the next five quarters.
On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters peg real GDP at 3 percent this year, 2.9 percent in 2011, 3.4 percent in 2012, and 3.1 percent in 2013. Previously, forecasters saw GDP growth at 2.4 percent in 2010.
The forecasters also expect a slightly stronger labor market in 2010 than they did in the fourth quarter 2009. They see an annual-average unemployment rate of 9.8 percent this year, down from their fourth-quarter forecast of 10 percent.
In a series of special questions, the forecasters were asked to state their views on house prices.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.
To arrange an interview with an analyst, contact Katherine Dibling, the Bank's senior media representative, at (215) 574-4119. The next survey will be released at 10 a.m., May 14, 2010, and will be made available on our website.