For release: 10 a.m., November 16, 2009
Contact: Katherine Dibling, senior media representative, (215) 574-4119
Philadelphia, Pa. - The 41 participants in the fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters, released today, project growth in the U.S. economy over the next five quarters. Accordingly the survey participants are much less than anxious about the probability of negative growth in the fourth quarter, reducing that index from 23.7 percent three months ago to 15.4 percent in this survey. However, they see a weaker labor market than they did three months ago.
In a series of special questions, the forecasters were asked to give their estimates for real GDP, the unemployment rate, the t-bill rate (3-month) and the t-bond rate (10 year) through 2012.
The forecasters see real GDP growing at an annual rate of 2.7 percent this quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, forecasters see real GDP falling 2.5 percent in 2009 before rebounding in each of the following three years. Unemployment is now seen at an annual average of 9.3 percent in 2009 and 10 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.2 percent in 2011 and 8.3 percent in 2012.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.
To arrange an interview with an analyst, contact Katherine Q. Dibling, the Bank's senior media representative, at (215) 574-4119. The next survey will be released at 10 a.m., February 12, 2010, and will be made available on our website.