> > > >
For release: October 30, 2003
Contact: Kathy Woodbury, (215) 574-4119
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released September's leading and economic activity indexes for Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Vice President and Economist Ted Crone summarized the information from the indexes:
"The leading indexes for Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware were all positive in September, and they were all near their highs for the past 12 months. These readings suggest continued growth in the region's economy through the first half of 2004. The indexes of current economic activity were up in Delaware and New Jersey and steady in Pennsylvania."
The indexes, compiled by the Bank since 1994, present comprehensive measures of the economies of Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The economic activity index is a composite indicator based on nonfarm payroll employment, unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and real wage and salary disbursements. The leading index, which is an indicator of future growth, is based on the recent pattern of the activity index, as well as traditional leading indicators including housing permits, interest rates, delivery times, and initial unemployment claims. The economic activity index is an indicator of the current economic climate, and the leading index forecasts the growth rate of the activity indexes nine months into the future.
For a recent article about the indexes in Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Third Quarter Business Review, see http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/br/brq303tc.pdf. For September's economic indexes for all 50 states, see http://www.philadelphiafed.org/econ/stateindexes/index.html.
To arrange an interview, contact Kathy Woodbury, the Bank's assistant media representative, at (215) 574-4119. October's indexes are due to be released in late November and will be made available on this web site.