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For release: September 24, 2002
Contact: Kathy Woodbury, (215) 574-4119
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released August's leading and economic activity indexes for Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Vice President and Economist Ted Crone summarized the information from the indexes:
"The indexes of current activity released today for Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware indicate that the economies in the three states are advancing modestly or have at least stabilized. So far the recovery in the three states has not been strong. But the positive readings of the leading indexes for all three states in August signal growth through the first quarter of 2003."
The indexes, compiled by the Bank since 1994, present comprehensive measures of the economies of Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The economic activity index is a composite indicator based on nonfarm payroll employment, unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and real wage and salary disbursements. The leading index, which is a forecast of the growth of the economic activity index, is based on the recent pattern of the activity index, as well as traditional leading indicators including housing permits, interest rates, delivery times, and initial unemployment claims.
The economic activity index is an indicator of the current economic climate, and the leading index forecasts the growth rate of the activity indexes nine months into the future.
To arrange an interview, contact Kathy Woodbury, the Bank's assistant media representative, at (215) 574-4119. September's indexes are due to be released in late October and will be made available on our web site at www.philadelphiafed.org.