Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey March 2026 Note: Survey responses were collected from March 9 to March 19. Nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined this month, according to the firms responding to the March Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and new orders were both negative, while the sales/revenues index moved higher. The firms reported overall decreases in both full- and part-time employment. Both price indexes continued to indicate overall increases in prices, but the prices received index fell below its long-run average. Expectations for growth over the next six months were less widespread this month. Current Indexes Are Mixed The diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level fell 14 points to -8.3, its first negative reading since June. More than 19 percent of the firms reported increases (down from 28 percent last month), 27 percent reported decreases (up from 22 percent), and 54 percent reported no change in activity (up from 50 percent). The new orders index rose 5 points to -4.7, remaining negative for the second consecutive month. Almost 19 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders, 23 percent reported decreases, and 35 percent reported no change. The sales/revenues index rose from 8.2 to 13.2. Almost 34 percent of the responding firms reported increases in sales/revenues, while 21 percent reported decreases. The regional activity index fell 7 points to -23.9 this month, its lowest reading since May. Firms Report Overall Decreases in Employment The full-time employment index fell 22 points to -11.3 this month, its lowest reading since August 2024. Almost 14 percent of the firms reported decreases in full-time employment (up from 8 percent last month), 2 percent reported increases (down from 19 percent), and 81 percent reported steady employment levels (up from 70 percent). The part-time employment index fell 13 points to -7.2 this month, its lowest reading since May. Firms Continue to Report Price Increases Price indicator readings suggest continued increases in prices for inputs and prices for the firms' own goods and services, although both indexes moved down this month. The prices paid index ticked down 2 points to 39.1. Almost 44 percent of the respondents reported higher input prices, 36 percent reported no change, and 4 percent reported decreases. Regarding prices for the firms' own goods and services, the prices received index fell 13 points to 9.3 this month, its lowest reading since June. Almost 18 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received, and 8 percent reported decreases. Most of the firms (60 percent) reported no change in prices for their own goods and services. Firms were Mixed on Quarterly Sales/Revenues In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total sales/revenues growth for the first quarter ending this month compared with the fourth quarter of 2025; they were also asked about factors constraining business operations (see Special Questions). Equal shares of respondents (41 percent) expected increases and decreases in first-quarter sales/revenues. In the current quarter, nearly 89 percent of the firms reported uncertainty as at least a slight constraint on business operations, similar to when this question was last asked in December. Over 77 percent of the firms cited energy markets as at least a slight constraint, up from 38 percent last quarter. Looking ahead over the next three months, most of the firms expect the impacts of energy markets and uncertainty to worsen. Future Indicators Decline The future general activity indexes continued to suggest the firms expect growth at their own companies over the next six months, but expectations were less widespread this month. The diffusion index for future general activity at the firm level fell 19 points to 12.5, its lowest reading since December. Thirty-six percent of the firms expect an increase in activity at their firms over the next six months, 24 percent expect decreases, and 40 percent expect no change. The future regional activity index also fell, declining 16 points to -1.6, its first negative reading since December. Summary Responses to this month's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest an overall decline in nonmanufacturing activity among the firms in the region. The indicators for firm-level general activity and new orders were both negative, but the sales/revenues index rose. The full- and part-time employment indexes both turned negative, suggesting overall decreases in employment. The prices paid and prices received indexes moved down but continued to indicate increases in prices, on balance. Expectations for growth over the next six months were less widespread this month. Special Questions (March 2026) 1. How will your firm's total sales/revenues for the first quarter of 2026 compare with those of the fourth quarter of 2025? An increase of: % of firms Subtotals 10% or more 3.1 % of firms reporting an increase: 5-10% 15.6 40.6 0-5% 21.9 No change 18.8 A decline of: 0-5% 28.1 % of firms reporting a decrease: 5-10% 3.1 40.6 10% or more 9.4 2. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on business operations? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 22.9 60.0 2.9 14.3 Financial capital 60.6 18.2 18.2 3.0 Labor supply 29.4 47.1 17.6 5.9 Supply chains 48.5 42.4 9.1 0.0 Uncertainty 11.4 25.7 31.4 31.4 Other factors 57.1 28.6 0.0 14.3 3. Over the next three months, do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on business operations to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 76.5 8.8 14.7 Financial capital 35.3 55.9 8.8 Labor supply 9.1 81.8 9.1 Supply chains 40.0 60.0 0.0 Uncertainty 71.9 18.8 9.4 Other factors 40.0 60.0 0.0 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey March 2026 March vs. February Previous Diffusion No Diffusion Index Increase Change Decrease Index General Activity -17.3 10.4 52.8 34.4 -23.9 - in Region General Activity 5.8 19.1 53.6 27.4 -8.3 - at Firm New Orders -9.3 18.6 34.7 23.3 -4.7 Sales/Revenues 8.2 33.9 45.3 20.7 13.2 Unfilled Orders -10.1 5.3 30.5 11.8 -6.5 Inventories -5.8 3.9 21.1 4.1 -0.2 Prices Paid 40.7 43.5 35.8 4.4 39.1 Prices Received 22.0 17.7 60.2 8.4 9.3 Full-Time Emp. 10.6 2.2 81.1 13.5 -11.3 Part-Time Emp. 5.5 7.0 72.9 14.1 -7.2 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 29.5 12.2 77.8 7.4 4.8 Wage and Ben. 30.0 34.3 61.6 0.0 34.3 Cap. Ex. - Plant 9.6 7.9 37.9 10.9 -3.0 Cap. Ex. - Equip. 19.0 13.4 55.8 10.1 3.3 Six Months from Now vs. March Future Activity 14.2 31.2 36.0 32.8 -1.6 - in Region Future Activity 31.7 36.0 40.4 23.5 12.5 - at Firm Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through March 19, 2026. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: March 24, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.