Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey December 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from December 8 to December 15. Manufacturing activity appeared weak this month, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for current general activity fell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes both returned to positive territory after turning negative last month. The employment index rose and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes remained elevated but moved in opposite directions. Most of the survey's future indicators softened but continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Are Mixed The diffusion index for current general activity declined 9 points to -10.2 in December, its third consecutive negative reading. Nearly 28 percent of the firms reported decreases in general activity this month (down from 31 percent last month), while 18 percent reported increases (down from 29 percent); 51 percent reported no change (up from 40 percent). The new orders and shipments indexes both turned positive after falling below zero last month. The new orders index rose 14 points to 5.0 this month, and the shipments index rose 12 points to 3.2. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in employment this month, and the employment index rose from 6.0 to 12.9, its highest reading since May. Most firms continued to report no change in employment levels (83 percent), while the share of firms reporting increases (13 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (less than 1 percent). The average workweek index rose 11 points to 14.7. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases Both price indexes remained elevated. The prices paid index fell 13 points to 43.6, its lowest reading since June. Forty-six percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 2 percent reported decreases; 52 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index rose 7 points to 24.3, mostly undoing its decline from last month. Over 28 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 4 percent reported decreases, and 68 percent reported no change. Firms Report Higher Production, Little Change in Capacity Utilization This Quarter In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the fourth quarter ending this month compared with the third quarter of 2025 (see Special Questions). A higher share of firms reported an increase in production (52 percent) compared with the share reporting a decrease (16 percent). Regarding firms' capacity utilization for the current quarter and one year ago, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was unchanged at 70 to 80 percent. Nearly 62 percent of the firms reported that uncertainty was at least a slight constraint to capacity utilization in the current quarter, and similar shares of firms cited labor supply (50 percent) and supply chains (48 percent) as a constraint to some degree in the current quarter. Looking ahead over the next three months, most of the firms expect the impacts of various factors to stay the same. However, 29 percent of the firms expect the impact of energy markets to worsen over the next three months. Additionally, 25 percent and 21 percent of the firms expect impacts of uncertainty and supply chains to worsen, respectively. Most Future Indicators Soften but Remain Elevated The diffusion index for future general activity fell 8 points to 41.6 in December, its first decline since June. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (54 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (13 percent); 27 percent expect no change. The future new orders index declined 12 points to 44.0, and the shipments index moved down 5 points to 43.2; both indexes remain above their historical averages. The future employment index fell from 35.7 to 27.1. Both future price indexes moved lower but remained well elevated compared with their historical averages. The future capital expenditures index rose 5 points to 30.3, its highest reading since August. Summary Responses to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest weak regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity declined and remained negative, while the new orders and shipments indexes turned positive. The firms continued to indicate overall increases in employment and prices. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. Special Questions (December 2025) 1. How will your firm's total production for the fourth quarter of 2025 compare with that of the third quarter of 2025? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 8.0 5-10% 12.0 0-5% 32.0 Subtotal 52.0 (% of firms reporting an increase) No change 32.0 A decline of: 0-5% 12.0 5-10% 0.0 10% or more 4.0 Subtotal 16.0 (% of firms reporting a decrease) 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2025:Q4) and one year ago (2024:Q4)? 2025:Q4 2024:Q4 Capacity Utilization Rate % of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 0.0 0.0 30-40% 0.0 7.7 40-50% 0.0 0.0 50-60% 3.8 3.8 60-70% 26.9 15.4 70-80% 30.8 38.5 80-90% 26.9 11.5 90-100% 11.5 23.1 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 84.6 11.5 3.8 0.0 Financial capital 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Labor supply 50.0 23.1 15.4 11.5 Supply chains 52.0 28.0 12.0 8.0 Uncertainty 38.5 30.8 19.2 11.5 Other factors 70.6 11.8 5.9 11.8 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 29.2 70.8 0.0 Financial capital 4.3 87.0 8.7 Labor supply 16.7 66.7 16.7 Supply chains 20.8 66.7 12.5 Uncertainty 25.0 66.7 8.3 Other factors 0.0 86.7 13.3 Summary of Returns December 2025 December vs. November Six Months from Now vs. December Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -1.7 17.6 51.3 27.8 -10.2 49.6 54.2 26.6 12.6 41.6 Activity New Orders -8.6 25.7 53.7 20.6 5.0 55.6 56.0 31.2 12.0 44.0 Shipments -8.7 26.3 48.8 23.1 3.2 48.4 52.5 36.6 9.3 43.2 Unfilled Orders -6.5 7.4 78.9 13.7 -6.2 15.0 18.8 71.0 6.7 12.1 Delivery Times -4.3 7.6 90.9 1.4 6.2 5.3 13.6 83.9 0.9 12.7 Inventories 2.7 17.5 70.2 11.0 6.5 15.6 21.8 55.4 22.7 -0.9 Prices Paid 56.1 46.0 51.7 2.4 43.6 75.1 70.5 21.7 7.8 62.6 Prices Received 17.7 28.4 67.5 4.1 24.3 56.8 62.5 30.8 6.7 55.8 Number of Emp. 6.0 13.4 83.2 0.4 12.9 35.7 31.8 61.8 4.7 27.1 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 3.7 14.7 84.6 0.0 14.7 28.2 20.6 76.1 0.0 20.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 26.7 30.3 69.4 0.0 30.3 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through December 15, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: December 18, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. November 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from November 10 to November 17. Manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index rose but remained negative, while the new orders and shipments indexes both turned negative. The employment index continued to suggest overall increases. Both price indexes continued to suggest overall price increases. Expectations for growth over the next six months were more widespread. Most Current Indicators Weaken The diffusion index for current general activity increased 11 points to -1.7 in November after a sharp decline in October. The share of responses indicating decreases (31 percent) narrowly exceeded the share indicating increases (29 percent); 40 percent reported no change. The new orders and shipments indexes both declined and turned negative. The new orders index fell 27 points to -8.6, its lowest reading since April, and the shipments index dropped 15 points to -8.7, its first negative reading since May. The firms continued to report overall increases in employment, and the employment index ticked up 1 point to 6.0. Most firms continued to report no change in employment levels (75 percent), while the share of firms reporting increases (16 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (10 percent). The average workweek index fell from 12.8 to 3.7. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases The prices paid index remained well elevated and increased 7 points to 56.1. Most firms (59 percent) reported increases in prices paid, 3 percent of the firms reported decreases, and 39 percent reported no change. The current prices received index fell 9 points to 17.7, more than offsetting last month's increase, and remained above its long-run average. Firms Expect Lower Growth for Prices from Last Quarter In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Price and Inflation Expectations). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms' median forecast was for an expected increase of 3.0 percent, down from 4.1 percent when this question was last asked in August. The firms also reported a median increase of 3.0 percent in their own prices over the past year, down from 3.5 percent. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.3 percent over the next four quarters, down slightly from 3.5 percent in August. The firms' median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year declined from 3.6 percent to 3.0 percent. The firms were also asked about changes in core customer price sensitivity and anticipated cost changes (see Special Questions). Forty percent of the firms reported customers were more price sensitive since last quarter, while half reported customers' sensitivity was about the same. Almost 61 percent of the firms indicated they anticipate changes in their industry's costs in the near term, and nearly 69 percent of those firms expect their competitors to raise prices in response. Regarding when these price changes will occur, the firms' median expectation was for competitors to change prices in the next three months. Growth Expectations Are More Widespread The diffusion index for future general activity increased from 36.2 to 49.6, its highest reading in a year. The future new orders index rose to 55.6, its highest reading since January, and the future shipments index was unchanged at 48.4. Both future price indexes remained elevated and moved higher. The future capital expenditures index ticked up 2 points to 26.7. Summary Responses to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity weakened this month. The indicator for current activity remained negative, and the indexes for new orders and shipments turned negative. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment. The prices paid index rose further above its long-run average, while the prices received index moved lower but remained elevated. Future indicators suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. Special Questions (November 2025) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Aug. 2025) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2025Q4-2026Q4) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 3.0 4.1 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.3 3.5 Last year's price change (2024Q4-2025Q4) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 3.0 3.5 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 3.0 3.6 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2025-2034). 3.0 3.0 Note: For questions 1-5, the numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. 6. Since last quarter, have your core customers become more or less price sensitive? Percent (%) More sensitive 40.0 About the same 50.0 Less sensitive 6.7 Don't know 3.3 7. Over the near term (roughly the next six months or so), can you clearly anticipate any changes in your industry's costs? Percent (%) Yes 60.7 No 39.3 7a. How do you anticipate that your competitors will respond?* Percent (%) Raise prices 68.8 Hold prices steady 12.5 Lower prices 12.5 Don't know 6.3 *Only firms that responded "yes" to question 7 responded to question 7a. 7b. How soon do you anticipate your competitors will change prices?** Number of Months Median Response 3.0 **Only firms that responded "raise prices" or "lower prices" to question 7a responded to question 7b. Summary of Returns November 2025 November vs. October Six Months from Now vs. November Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -12.8 29.2 39.8 31.0 -1.7 36.2 54.3 36.4 4.7 49.6 Activity New Orders 18.2 25.6 40.2 34.2 -8.6 49.8 60.1 34.4 4.6 55.6 Shipments 6.0 21.5 47.4 30.2 -8.7 48.4 54.0 39.5 5.6 48.4 Unfilled Orders -2.2 19.8 53.9 26.3 -6.5 19.2 20.4 73.2 5.4 15.0 Delivery Times 6.6 14.1 67.6 18.3 -4.3 9.3 13.9 77.5 8.6 5.3 Inventories 5.4 24.7 49.7 22.0 2.7 0.9 24.5 66.6 8.9 15.6 Prices Paid 49.2 58.6 38.7 2.5 56.1 59.8 75.1 24.9 0.0 75.1 Prices Received 26.8 25.9 66.0 8.2 17.7 45.7 56.8 43.2 0.0 56.8 Number of Emp. 4.6 15.6 74.8 9.6 6.0 21.4 36.1 63.1 0.3 35.7 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 12.8 9.7 84.3 6.0 3.7 10.6 28.2 71.8 0.0 28.2 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 25.2 26.7 72.4 0.0 26.7 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through November 17, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: November 20, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. October 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from October 6 to October 13. Manufacturing activity in the region was mixed, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's index for current general activity fell significantly and turned negative, more than offsetting last month's increase. The shipments index declined but remained positive, while the new orders index rose. The employment index ticked down but continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moved higher and remain elevated. The survey's future indicators suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Are Mixed The diffusion index for current general activity dropped 36 points to -12.8 in October, its lowest reading since April. Twenty-five percent of the firms reported decreases in general activity this month (up from 17 percent last month), while 12 percent reported increases (down from 40 percent); 58 percent reported no change (up from 43 percent). The shipments index fell 20 points but remained positive at 6.0. Meanwhile, the new orders index rose 6 points to 18.2. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in employment this month, and the employment index ticked down 1 point to 4.6. Almost 12 percent of the firms reported increases, while 7 percent reported decreases; 81 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels. The average workweek index declined to 12.8 from 14.9 in September. Firms Report Higher-than-Average Overall Price Increases The prices paid index rose 3 points to 49.2 in October, following last month's fall from a multiyear high. Over 49 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases; 51 percent reported no change. The current prices received index rose 8 points to 26.8 after declining last month. Almost 28 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 1 percent reported decreases, and 70 percent reported no change. Both price indexes are above their nonrecession averages. Firms Anticipate Higher Capital Expenditures Next Year In this month's special question, manufacturers were asked about their plans for different categories of capital expenditures next year (see Special Question). Almost 36 percent of the firms expect to increase total capital spending, compared with 19 percent expecting to decrease total spending; 45 percent expect total spending to stay the same. When this question was asked last year, the share of firms expecting to increase spending (52 percent) exceeded the share of firms expecting to decrease spending (21 percent). Expectations for higher capital expenditures were most widespread for computer and related hardware, noncomputer equipment, and software. However, at least half the firms expect capital expenditures to stay the same across all categories, except noncomputer equipment. Firms Continue to Expect Growth The diffusion index for future general activity rose 5 points to 36.2 in October. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (47 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (11 percent); 35 percent expect no change. The future new orders index rose 7 points to 49.8, its highest reading since January, and the future shipments index jumped 17 points to 48.4. Expectations for employment remained widespread but were relatively unchanged at 21.4. Both future price indexes declined but remained elevated compared with their long-run averages. The future prices paid index declined 10 points to 59.8, and the future prices received index fell 19 points to 45.7. The future capital expenditures index increased 13 points to 25.2, partially offsetting last month's decline. Nearly 30 percent of the firms expected future increases in capital expenditures, while 5 percent expected decreases; 59 percent expected no change. Summary Responses to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity was mixed this month. The index for current activity dropped significantly and turned negative, more than offsetting last month's increase. The indicator for shipments also declined but remained positive, while the new orders index rose for the second consecutive month. The firms continued to indicate overall increases in employment and widespread increases in prices. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. Special Question (October 2025) Comparing 2026 with 2025, do you expect capital expenditures to be higher, the same, or lower for each of the following categories? Higher Same Lower Diffusion --------(% of reporters)------- Index Software 35.5 61.3 3.2 32.3 Noncomputer equipment 43.8 46.9 9.4 34.4 Energy-saving investments 13.3 76.7 10.0 3.3 Computer and related hardware 40.6 56.3 3.1 37.5 Structure 21.9 68.8 9.4 13.2 Other 12.5 87.5 0.0 12.5 Total capital spending 35.5 45.2 19.4 16.1 Summary of Returns October 2025 October vs. September Six Months from Now vs. October Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 23.2 12.4 58.1 25.2 -12.8 31.5 47.4 34.5 11.2 36.2 Activity New Orders 12.4 34.5 49.3 16.2 18.2 42.4 57.3 30.5 7.5 49.8 Shipments 26.1 24.1 56.5 18.1 6.0 31.0 51.0 38.3 2.7 48.4 Unfilled Orders -6.6 17.6 62.6 19.8 -2.2 12.0 29.1 53.3 9.9 19.2 Delivery Times -3.4 13.3 80.1 6.7 6.6 0.5 14.3 70.9 5.0 9.3 Inventories 15.0 21.1 59.1 15.7 5.4 -3.0 20.1 50.1 19.2 0.9 Prices Paid 46.8 49.2 50.8 0.0 49.2 69.8 63.1 31.8 3.3 59.8 Prices Received 18.8 27.5 69.6 0.7 26.8 64.8 47.4 45.6 1.7 45.7 Number of Emp. 5.6 11.6 80.9 7.0 4.6 23.7 32.3 49.1 10.9 21.4 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 14.9 13.8 82.3 1.0 12.8 22.5 17.2 65.8 6.6 10.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 12.5 29.9 58.8 4.7 25.2 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through October 13, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: October 16, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. September 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from September 8 to September 15. Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the former two returning to positive territory. The employment index remained mostly unchanged and continued to reflect overall increases in employment. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated. The survey's future indicators suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Improve The diffusion index for current general activity rose 24 points to 23.2 in September, its highest reading since January. Almost 40 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (up from 30 percent last month), while 17 percent reported decreases (down from 30 percent); 43 percent reported no change (up from 36 percent). The new orders index rose 14 points to 12.4 this month, and the shipments index rose 22 points to 26.1. On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in employment this month, and the employment index was little changed at 5.6. Almost 16 percent of the firms reported increases, while 10 percent reported decreases; 74 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels. The average workweek index rose 10 points to 14.9. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases The prices paid index fell 20 points to 46.8, down notably from a multiyear high last month. Nearly 49 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 2 percent reported decreases; 48 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index fell 17 points to 18.8. Almost 20 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 1 percent reported decreases, and 78 percent reported no change. Firms Report Higher Production, Little Change in Capacity Utilization In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the third quarter ending this month compared with the second quarter of 2025 (see Special Questions). A higher share of firms reported an increase in production (46 percent) compared with the share reporting a decrease (27 percent). Regarding firms' capacity utilization for the current quarter and one year ago, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was unchanged at 70 to 80 percent. Nearly 86 percent of the firms reported that uncertainty was at least a slight constraint to capacity utilization in the current quarter, and equal shares of firms (57 percent) reported that labor supply and supply chains were at least a slight constraint in the current quarter. Additionally, 18 percent of the firms indicated that labor supply impacts were a significant constraint this quarter. Looking ahead over the next three months, most of the firms expect the impacts of various factors to stay the same. However, one-quarter of the firms expect the impact of uncertainty to worsen over the next three months, and 14 percent expect the labor supply or supply chain impacts to worsen. Firms Continue to Expect Growth The diffusion index for future general activity rose 7 points to 31.5 in September, its highest reading since May. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (52 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (21 percent); 27 percent expect no change. The future new orders index edged up 3 points to 42.4, while the shipments index fell 9 points to 31.0. Expectations for employment were more widespread as the future employment index rose from 12.7 to 23.7. The future capital expenditures index fell 26 points to 12.5. Summary Responses to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity expanded overall this month. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments all rose. The firms indicated overall increases in employment and continued increases in prices, although both price indexes moderated. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. Special Questions (September 2025) 1. How will your firm's total production for the third quarter of 2025 compare with that of the second quarter of 2025? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 15.4 5-10% 7.7 0-5% 23.1 Subtotal 46.2 (% of firms reporting an increase) No change 26.9 A decline of: 0-5% 15.4 5-10% 0.0 10% or more 11.5 Subtotal 26.9 (% of firms reporting a decrease) 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2025:Q3) and one year ago (2024:Q3)? 2025:Q3 2024:Q3 Capacity Utilization Rate % of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 0.0 0.0 30-40% 0.0 4.2 40-50% 3.7 4.2 50-60% 7.4 8.3 60-70% 29.6 16.7 70-80% 29.6 33.3 80-90% 25.9 20.8 90-100% 3.7 12.5 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 85.7 14.3 0.0 0.0 Financial capital 89.3 10.7 0.0 0.0 Labor supply 42.9 25.0 14.3 17.9 Supply chains 42.9 50.0 3.6 3.6 Uncertainty 14.3 28.6 35.7 21.4 Other factors 85.7 7.1 0.0 7.1 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 21.4 75.0 3.6 Financial capital 0.0 89.3 10.7 Labor supply 14.3 71.4 14.3 Supply chains 14.3 78.6 7.1 Uncertainty 25.0 53.6 21.4 Other factors 0.0 93.8 6.3 Summary of Returns September 2025 September vs. August Six Months from Now vs. September Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -0.3 39.9 43.4 16.7 23.2 25.0 52.2 27.0 20.8 31.5 Activity New Orders -1.9 41.7 29.0 29.3 12.4 39.2 59.0 24.3 16.7 42.4 Shipments 4.5 44.0 38.1 17.9 26.1 40.3 51.4 28.3 20.3 31.0 Unfilled Orders -16.8 15.5 61.3 22.1 -6.6 7.7 24.6 60.8 12.6 12.0 Delivery Times -5.4 6.5 78.3 9.8 -3.4 4.5 12.3 75.0 11.8 0.5 Inventories -6.2 27.1 60.8 12.1 15.0 -14.3 23.7 49.6 26.7 -3.0 Prices Paid 66.8 48.8 48.4 2.0 46.8 68.4 70.1 27.9 0.3 69.8 Prices Received 36.1 19.5 78.4 0.7 18.8 48.5 64.8 35.2 0.0 64.8 Number of Emp. 5.9 15.8 73.9 10.2 5.6 12.7 30.3 62.6 6.6 23.7 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 4.7 22.9 69.1 8.0 14.9 4.3 32.6 55.4 10.1 22.5 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 38.4 17.0 78.4 4.6 12.5 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through September 15, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: September 18, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. August 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from August 11 to August 18. Manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index fell to a near-zero reading, the new orders index dipped into negative territory, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. The employment index continued to suggest overall increases. Both price indexes remained elevated. The firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, and expectations were somewhat more widespread. Current Indicators Weaken The diffusion index for current general activity declined from 15.9 to -0.3 in August, mostly undoing its rise from last month. The share of responses indicating increases and decreases were evenly split (30 percent), and 36 percent reported no change. The new orders and shipments indexes both declined, more than erasing their increases from last month. The new orders index fell 20 points to -1.9, its first negative reading since April, and the shipments index declined to 4.5. The firms continued to report overall increases in employment, but the employment index moved down 4 points to 5.9. Most firms continued to report no change in employment levels (74 percent), while the share of firms reporting increases (16 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (10 percent). The average workweek index rose from 0.4 to 4.7. Price Increases Remain Widespread Both price indexes remained elevated. The prices paid index increased 8 points to 66.8, its highest reading since May 2022. The current prices received index ticked up 1 point to 36.1. Most firms (64 percent) reported no change in prices received, 36 percent of the firms reported increases, and none reported decreases. Firms Expect Higher Growth for Own Prices In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms' median forecast was for an expected increase of 4.1 percent, up from 3.8 percent when this question was last asked in May. The firms reported a median increase of 3.5 percent in their own prices over the past year, up from 3.0 percent last quarter. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.5 percent over the next four quarters, down from 4.0 percent in May. The firms' median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year edged down from 3.8 percent to 3.6 percent. The firms were also asked about changes in customer price sensitivity and anticipated cost changes. Half of the firms reported their core customers were more price sensitive since last quarter, while 46 percent reported customers were about the same. Almost 54 percent of the firms indicated they can anticipate changes in their industry's costs in the near term, and over 71 percent of those firms expected their competitors to raise prices in response. Regarding when these price changes will occur, the firms' median expectation was for competitors to change prices in the next three months. Firms Continue to Expect Growth The diffusion index for future general activity increased from 21.5 to 25.0. The future new orders index rose to 39.2, and the future shipments index rose to 40.3, their highest readings since May. Both future price indexes remained elevated but moved lower. The future capital expenditures index more than doubled, rising to 38.4, its highest reading since January. Summary Responses to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity weakened this month. The indicators for current activity and new orders dipped into negative territory, while the shipments index declined but remained positive. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the price indexes rose further above their long-run averages. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. Special Questions (August 2025) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (May 2025) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2025Q3-2026Q3) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 4.1 3.8 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.5 4.0 Last year's price change (2024Q3-2025Q3) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 3.5 3.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 3.6 3.8 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2025-2034). 3.0 3.0 Note: For questions 1-5, the numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. 6. Since last quarter, have your core customers become more or less price sensitive? Percent (%) More sensitive 50.0 About the same 46.2 Less sensitive 3.8 Don't know 0.0 7. Over the near term (roughly the next six months or so), can you clearly anticipate any changes in your industry's costs? Percent (%) Yes 53.8 No 46.2 7a. How do you anticipate that your competitors will respond?* Percent (%) Raise prices 71.4 Hold prices steady 21.4 Lower prices 0.0 Don't know 7.1 *Only firms that responded "yes" to question 7 responded to question 7a. 7b. How soon do you anticipate your competitors will change prices?** Number of Months Median Response 3.0 **Only firms that responded "raise prices" or "lower prices" to question 7a responded to question 7b. Summary of Returns August 2025 August vs. July Six Months from Now vs. August Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 15.9 29.9 35.8 30.2 -0.3 21.5 40.5 36.0 15.5 25.0 Conditions New Orders 18.4 34.2 26.9 36.2 -1.9 30.0 59.3 20.7 20.0 39.2 Shipments 23.7 28.9 46.7 24.4 4.5 23.6 58.6 20.1 18.3 40.3 Unfilled Orders 5.7 10.8 57.0 27.7 -16.8 18.4 24.5 55.9 16.8 7.7 Delivery Times -4.7 12.9 68.8 18.3 -5.4 10.4 15.6 71.2 11.0 4.5 Inventories -1.3 15.7 58.9 21.8 -6.2 10.7 13.9 57.4 28.2 -14.3 Prices Paid 58.8 66.8 33.2 0.0 66.8 75.3 68.4 30.9 0.0 68.4 Prices Received 34.8 36.1 63.9 0.0 36.1 59.4 49.7 46.0 1.2 48.5 Number of Emp. 10.3 15.8 74.3 9.9 5.9 20.1 27.6 55.7 14.9 12.7 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 0.4 14.2 76.3 9.5 4.7 12.4 11.1 81.6 6.9 4.3 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 17.1 45.0 48.3 6.6 38.4 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through August 18, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: August 21, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. July 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from July 7 to July 14. Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall this month, according to the firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity returned to positive territory, and the indexes for new orders and shipments both increased this month. All three indexes recorded their highest readings since February. The employment index turned positive, suggesting overall increases in employment. Both price indexes rose after declining last month and continue to suggest overall price increases. The future activity indicators suggest that the firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Improve The diffusion index for current general activity rose 20 points to 15.9 in July, its first positive reading after three negative readings and its highest reading since February. Nearly 32 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (up from 25 percent last month), while 16 percent reported decreases (down from 28 percent); 49 percent reported no change (up from 44 percent). The index for new orders increased 16 points to 18.4 this month, and the current shipments index increased from 8.3 to 23.7, also their highest readings since February. The firms reported overall increases in employment, as the employment index rose 20 points to 10.3 and mostly recovered its decline from last month. Most firms (70 percent) reported no change in employment, 17 percent reported increases, and 7 percent reported decreases. The average workweek index inched up to 0.4. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases The prices paid index rose 17 points from 41.4 to 58.8, largely undoing its fall in June. Almost 61 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 2 percent reported decreases; 31 percent reported no change. The current prices received index increased 5 points to 34.8. Almost 35 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, none reported decreases, and 58 percent reported no change. Firms Continue to Expect Increases in Wages In this month's special questions, the firms were asked about changes in wage rates and compensation packages over the past three months, as well as their updated expectations for changes in various input and labor costs for the current year (see Special Questions). Thirty percent of the firms indicated wages and compensation costs had increased over the past three months, 70 percent reported no change, and no firm reported decreases. Sixty-nine percent of the firms reported not having made changes to their 2025 plan for wages and compensation since the beginning of the year, 28 percent indicated they plan to increase wages and compensation, and 3 percent indicated they plan to decrease wages and compensation. The firms expect cost increases across all categories of expenses in 2025. The responses indicate a median expected increase of 3 to 4 percent for wages, unchanged from April. The firms also reported a median expected increase of 4 to 5 percent for health benefits, up from 3 to 4 percent when this question was last asked in April, and an increase of 3 to 4 percent for total compensation (wages plus benefits), down from 4 to 5 percent in April. Future Indicators Remain Positive The diffusion index for future general activity ticked up 3 point to 21.5 in July, after declining 29 points in June. Nearly 41 percent of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 20 percent that expect a decrease; 30 percent expect no change. The future new orders index increased 8 points to 30.0, and the future shipments index decreased 4 points to 23.6. The firms still expect overall increases in employment over the next six months, but the future employment index ticked down 5 points to 20.1. Almost 26 percent of the firms expect increases, while 6 percent expect decreases in future employment; more than 67 percent of the firms expect no change. The index for future capital expenditures increased 3 points to 17.1. Almost 73 percent of the firms expect no change in capital spending. Summary Responses to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggested an overall increase in regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity turned positive after three consecutive negative readings, and the new orders and shipments indexes both increased. The firms indicated overall increases in employment, and the current price indexes remained elevated. The survey's broad indicators for future activity remained positive, suggesting expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (July 2025) 1. How have wages and compensation changed at your firm over the past three months? Percent (%) Increased 30.0 No change 70.0 Decreased 0.0 2. Since the beginning of the year, have you adjusted your plan for wage rates and compensation packages for 2025? Yes, and we are planning to increase wage rates and compensation packages. 27.6 Yes, and we are planning to decrease wage rates and compensation packages. 3.4 No, we have not made changes to wage rates and compensation packages. 69.0 3. What percentage change in costs do you now expect for the following categories over all of 2025?* Energy Other Inter- Wages Health Non- Wages + (%) Raw mediate (%) Benefits health Health Materials goods (%) Benefits Benefits + (%) (%) (%) Nonhealth Benefits (%) Decline of more than 1% 10.3 3.4 3.7 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 No change 20.7 13.8 14.8 13.8 10.3 41.4 10.3 Increase of 1-2% 10.3 10.3 14.8 6.9 10.3 3.4 3.4 Increase of 2-3% 13.8 10.3 18.5 20.7 6.9 27.6 17.2 Increase of 3-4% 6.9 20.7 7.4 37.9 10.3 17.2 20.7 Increase of 4-5% 20.7 10.3 18.5 20.7 20.7 6.9 13.8 Increase of 5-7.5% 3.4 10.3 3.7 0.0 10.3 0.0 13.8 Increase of 7.5-10% 0.0 6.9 7.4 0.0 10.3 0.0 3.4 Increase of 10-12.5% 13.8 3.4 7.4 0.0 3.4 3.4 13.8 Increase of more than 12.5% 0.0 10.3 3.7 0.0 13.8 0.0 3.4 ------------------------------------ ------- ------------------------- ------ Median Exp. Change 2-3 3-4 2-3 3-4 4-5 2-3 3-4 Median Exp. Change (Apr 2025 ) -1-1 4-5 3-4 3-4 3-4 2-3 4-5 *The firms responded to more detailed changes than shown in the provided ranges. Summary of Returns July 2025 July vs. June Six Months from Now vs. July Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -4.0 31.7 48.7 15.8 15.9 18.3 41.1 29.9 19.6 21.5 Activity New Orders 2.3 35.2 42.7 16.8 18.4 22.1 47.9 30.0 17.9 30.0 Shipments 8.3 32.4 51.0 8.8 23.7 27.9 45.1 29.1 21.5 23.6 Unfilled Orders 9.3 16.1 63.8 10.4 5.7 18.9 26.9 61.4 8.5 18.4 Delivery Times 13.6 7.9 75.0 12.6 -4.7 24.5 10.4 79.5 0.0 10.4 Inventories 3.6 20.6 46.4 21.8 -1.3 3.6 23.4 53.8 12.7 10.7 Prices Paid 41.4 60.9 30.8 2.1 58.8 68.9 76.6 19.4 1.2 75.3 Prices Received 29.5 34.8 57.6 0.0 34.8 52.5 60.5 32.7 1.1 59.4 Number of Emp. -9.8 16.9 70.4 6.6 10.3 24.6 25.8 67.4 5.7 20.1 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -1.6 18.4 56.5 18.0 0.4 13.4 17.7 77.1 5.3 12.4 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 14.5 22.0 72.9 4.9 17.1 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through July 14, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: July 17, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. June 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from June 9 to June 16. Manufacturing activity in the region remained weak, according to the firms responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for current general activity remained slightly negative, unchanged from May. The new orders index fell but remained positive, and the shipments index improved, turning positive; both readings remain below their nonrecession averages. The employment index turned negative and fell to its lowest value since May 2020. Both price indexes moderated but remain elevated. The survey's future indicators suggest less widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Are Mixed The diffusion index for current general activity remained unchanged at -4.0 in June. Almost 25 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (up from 19 percent last month), while 28 percent reported decreases (up from 23 percent); 44 percent reported no change (down from 58 percent). The new orders index fell 5 points to 2.3 this month, and the shipments index rose 21 points to 8.3, its first positive reading since March. The firms reported overall decreases in employment, and the employment index fell from 16.5 to -9.8 this month, its lowest reading since May 2020. More than 10 percent of the firms reported increases, while 20 percent reported decreases; 69 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels. The average workweek index fell 4 points to -1.6. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases The prices paid index fell 18 points to 41.4, its lowest reading since February. Over 41 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases; 58 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index fell 14 points to 29.5. More than 32 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 3 percent reported decreases, and 65 percent reported no change. Firms Report Lower Production, Little Change in Capacity Utilization In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the second quarter ending this month compared with the first quarter of 2025 (see Special Questions). A higher share of firms reported a decrease in production (41 percent) compared with the share reporting an increase (33 percent). Regarding firms' capacity utilization for the current quarter and one year ago, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was unchanged at 70 to 80 percent. Over 74 percent of the firms reported that uncertainty was at least a slight constraint to capacity utilization in the current quarter, and almost 56 percent of the firms cited labor supply as a constraint. Additionally, 24 percent of the firms indicated that supply chain impacts were at least a slight constraint this quarter, with 8 percent categorizing the impact as moderate and 12 percent categorizing it as significant. Looking ahead over the next three months, most of the firms expect the impacts of various factors to stay the same. However, one-third of the firms expect the impact of uncertainty to worsen over the next three months, and 26 percent expect supply chain impacts to worsen. Expectations for Growth Are Less Widespread The diffusion index for future general activity fell 29 points to 18.3 in June after rising 40 points last month. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (45 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (27 percent); 19 percent expect no change. Similarly, the future new orders index dropped 28 points to 22.1, and the shipments index fell 23 points to 27.9. The firms continue to expect overall increases in employment, and the future employment index edged up from 23.0 to 24.6. The future capital expenditures index fell 13 points to 14.5. Summary Responses to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity remained weak overall this month. The indicator for current activity remained negative, while the indexes for new orders and shipments were positive but low. The firms indicated overall decreases in employment and continued increases in prices, although both price indexes moderated. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest less widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (June 2025) 1. How will your firm's total production for the second quarter of 2025 compare with that of the first quarter of 2025? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 7.4 5-10% 7.4 0-5% 18.5 Subtotal 33.3 (% of firms reporting an increase) No change 25.9 A decline of: 0-5% 3.7 5-10% 22.2 10% or more 14.8 Subtotal 40.7 (% of firms reporting a decrease) 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2025:Q2) and one year ago (2024:Q2)? 2025:Q2 2024:Q2 Capacity Utilization Rate % of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 0.0 0.0 30-40% 0.0 3.7 40-50% 3.7 3.7 50-60% 11.1 3.7 60-70% 25.9 18.5 70-80% 37.0 25.9 80-90% 14.8 25.9 90-100% 7.4 18.5 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 92.6 3.7 0.0 3.7 Financial capital 74.1 14.8 7.4 3.7 Labor supply 44.4 29.6 11.1 14.8 Supply chains 56.0 24.0 8.0 12.0 Uncertainty 25.9 14.8 22.2 37.0 Other factors 60.0 20.0 13.0 6.7 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 11.5 80.8 7.7 Financial capital 11.1 81.5 7.4 Labor supply 18.5 70.4 11.1 Supply chains 25.9 66.7 7.4 Uncertainty 33.3 48.1 18.5 Other factors 8.3 91.7 0.0 Summary of Returns June 2025 June vs. May Six Months from Now vs. June Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -4.0 24.5 43.6 28.4 -4.0 47.2 45.1 19.0 26.8 18.3 Conditions New Orders 7.5 26.1 50.1 23.8 2.3 49.7 50.1 21.7 28.0 22.1 Shipments -13.0 28.4 51.6 20.0 8.3 51.1 49.1 29.1 21.2 27.9 Unfilled Orders 4.9 20.1 68.7 10.8 9.3 3.3 29.0 60.7 10.1 18.9 Delivery Times -9.2 16.5 79.9 2.8 13.6 8.3 28.8 67.0 4.2 24.5 Inventories 9.7 16.1 68.1 12.5 3.6 5.3 27.2 47.3 23.7 3.6 Prices Paid 59.8 41.4 58.1 0.0 41.4 61.6 68.9 29.8 0.0 68.9 Prices Received 43.6 32.2 65.2 2.6 29.5 50.0 56.3 39.8 3.8 52.5 Number of Emp. 16.5 10.5 68.6 20.3 -9.8 23.0 35.1 54.1 10.5 24.6 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 2.0 10.3 77.6 12.0 -1.6 22.2 20.7 72.1 7.3 13.4 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 27.0 25.2 64.0 10.8 14.5 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through June 16, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: June 20, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. May 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from May 5 to May 12. Manufacturing activity in the region remained weak, according to the firms responding to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index rose but remained negative. The new orders index turned positive, while the shipments index remained negative and declined further. The employment index rose from a near-zero reading. Both price indexes remained elevated. The firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, and expectations were more widespread. Most Current Indicators Rise The diffusion index for current general activity rose from -26.4 to -4.0 in May, paring some of last month's sharp decline but remaining negative. Twenty-three percent of the firms reported decreases in general activity this month (down from 39 percent last month), while 19 percent reported increases (up from 13 percent); 58 percent reported no change (up from 41 percent last month). The new orders index rose 42 points to 7.5, offsetting nearly all of April's decline. The shipments index declined for the fourth consecutive month, falling 4 points to -13.0, its lowest reading since November 2023. The firms reported overall increases in employment, and the employment index rose 16 points to 16.5 in May. Most firms continued to report no change in employment levels (68 percent), while the share of firms reporting increases (23 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (7 percent). The average workweek index rose from -12.7 to 2.0. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases Both price indexes rose to their highest readings since June 2022. The prices paid index increased for the sixth consecutive month to 59.8. The current prices received index rose from 30.7 to 43.6. Almost 44 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received, no firms reported decreases, and 56 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Higher Growth for Own Prices and Inflation In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms' median forecast was for an expected increase of 3.8 percent, up from 3.0 percent when this question was last asked in February. The firms reported a median increase of 3.0 percent in their own prices over the past year, the same as last quarter. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 4.0 percent over the next four quarters, up slightly from February. The firms' median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year rose to 3.8 percent from 3.0 percent in February. The firms were also asked about changes in customer price sensitivity and anticipated cost changes. Half of the firms reported their core customers' price sensitivity was about the same as last quarter, while 43 percent reported customers were more price sensitive. Over 72 percent of the firms anticipated changes in their industry's costs in the near term, and nearly 86 percent of those firms expected their competitors to raise prices in response. Regarding when these price changes will occur, the firms' median expectation was for competitors to change prices in the next two months. Most Future Indicators Rise Sharply The diffusion index for future general activity jumped 40 points to 47.2 in May after two months of low readings. Similarly, the future new orders index rose to 49.7, and the future shipments index rose to 51.1. Both future price indexes moved lower but remained elevated. The future employment index rose from -0.6 to 23.0. The future capital expenditures index rose 25 points to 27.0. Summary Responses to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity remained weak. The indicators for current activity and shipments remained negative, while the index for new orders turned positive. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the price indexes rose further above their long-run averages. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest more widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (May 2025) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Feb. 2025) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2025Q2-2026Q2) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 3.8 3.0 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 4.0 3.9 Last year's price change (2024Q2-2025Q2) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 3.0 3.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 3.8 3.0 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2025-2034). 3.0 3.0 Note: For questions 1-5, the numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. 6. Since last quarter, have your core customers become more or less price sensitive? Percent (%) More sensitive 43.3 About the same 50.0 Less sensitive 3.3 Don't know 3.3 7. Over the near term (roughly the next six months or so), can you clearly anticipate any changes in your industry's costs? Percent (%) Yes 72.4 No 27.6 7a. How do you anticipate that your competitors will respond?* Percent (%) Raise prices 85.7 Hold prices steady 4.8 Lower prices 4.8 Don't know 4.8 *Only firms that responded "yes" to question 7 responded to question 7a. 7b. How soon do you anticipate your competitors will change prices?** Number of Months Median 2.0 **Only firms that responded "raise prices" or "lower prices" to question 7a responded to question 7b. Summary of Returns May 2025 May vs. April Six Months from Now vs. May Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -26.4 19.0 58.0 23.0 -4.0 6.9 67.3 12.5 20.2 47.2 Conditions New Orders -34.2 29.4 48.5 21.9 7.5 6.6 66.1 12.2 16.5 49.7 Shipments -9.1 14.6 57.5 27.5 -13.0 5.0 71.3 8.5 20.2 51.1 Unfilled Orders -1.1 20.7 63.4 15.8 4.9 11.4 19.1 63.7 15.8 3.3 Delivery Times -2.6 5.9 79.1 15.1 -9.2 0.2 17.8 72.7 9.5 8.3 Inventories -0.9 21.1 64.9 11.4 9.7 -0.2 21.4 59.5 16.0 5.3 Prices Paid 51.0 64.0 31.8 4.2 59.8 63.1 66.0 26.6 4.4 61.6 Prices Received 30.7 43.6 56.4 0.0 43.6 67.7 54.2 41.6 4.2 50.0 Number of Emp. 0.2 23.2 68.3 6.6 16.5 -0.6 36.1 50.8 13.1 23.0 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -12.7 9.2 83.6 7.2 2.0 -1.2 30.1 61.8 7.9 22.2 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 2.0 31.6 63.3 4.6 27.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through May 12, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: May 15, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. April 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from April 7 to April 14. Manufacturing activity in the region declined this month, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all fell and turned negative. The employment index registered a near-zero reading, suggesting steady employment conditions. Both price indexes continue to suggest overall price increases. The future activity indicators continue to suggest subdued expectations for growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Deteriorate The diffusion index for current general activity dropped 39 points to -26.4 in April, its lowest reading since April 2023. Nearly 39 percent of the firms reported decreases in general activity this month, while 13 percent reported increases; 41 percent reported no change. The index for new orders also fell sharply, from 8.7 in March to -34.2 this month, its lowest reading since April 2020. The current shipments index decreased 11 points to -9.1 this month. The firms reported mostly steady employment overall, as the employment index fell 20 points to 0.2 in April. Most firms (84 percent) reported no change in employment, while small, nearly identical shares reported increases and decreases (6 percent). The average workweek index fell sharply, from 8.7 to -12.7. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases The prices paid index edged up from 48.3 to 51.0, its highest reading since July 2022. Almost 54 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 3 percent reported decreases; 36 percent reported no change. The current prices received index ticked up 1 point to 30.7. Almost 31 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, none reported decreases, and 64 percent reported no change. Firms Continue to Expect Increases for Wages In this month's special questions, the firms were asked about changes in wages and compensation over the past three months, as well as their updated expectations for changes in various input and labor costs for the current year (see Special Questions). More than 38 percent of the firms indicated wages and compensation costs had increased over the past three months, 59 percent reported no change, and 3 percent reported decreases. Over half of the firms (53 percent) reported not having made changes to their 2025 plan for wages and compensation since the beginning of the year; 41 percent indicated they plan to increase wages and compensation, while 6 percent indicated they plan to decrease wages and compensation. The firms still expect cost increases across most categories of expenses in 2025. The responses indicate a median expected increase of 3 to 4 percent for wages, unchanged from when this question was last asked in January, and an increase of 4 to 5 percent for total compensation (wages plus benefits), up from 3 to 4 percent in January. Additionally, the firms' median expected change in costs for other raw materials and intermediate goods both rose relative to January. Future Indicators Remain Positive but Low The diffusion index for future general activity ticked up 1 point to 6.9 in April, after declining 22 points in March. Nearly 36 percent of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 29 percent that expect a decrease; 25 percent expect no change. The future new orders index increased 4 points to 6.6, and the future shipments index decreased 6 points to 5.0, its lowest reading since June 2024. The firms expect mostly steady employment over the next six months: The future employment index fell 18 points to -0.6, its lowest reading since February 2016. The firms were roughly evenly split between expecting increases and decreases in future employment (22 percent), and roughly half expect no change. The future prices paid index climbed to 63.1, and the future prices received index jumped 28 points to 67.7, its highest reading since June 2021. The index for future capital expenditures fell 11 points to 2.0. Nearly three-quarters of the firms expect no change in capital spending. Summary Responses to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggested a decline in regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments fell notably and turned negative. The firms indicated overall steady employment, and the current price indexes remained elevated. The survey's broad indicators for future activity were little changed and continued to suggest subdued expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (April 2025) 1. How have wages and compensation changed at your firm over the past three months? Percent (%) Increased 38.2 No change 58.8 Decreased 2.9 2. Since the beginning of the year, have you adjusted your budget for wages and compensation for 2025? Yes, and we are planning to increase wage rates and compensation packages. 40.6 Yes, and we are planning to decrease wage rates and compensation packages. 6.3 No, we have not made changes to wage rates and compensation packages. 53.1 3. What percentage change in costs do you now expect for the following categories over all of 2025?* Energy Other Inter- Wages Health Non- Wages + (%) Raw mediate (%) Benefits health Health Materials goods (%) Benefits Benefits + (%) (%) (%) Nonhealth Benefits (%) Decline of more than 1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 3.2 9.7 3.3 6.9 No change 43.3 6.5 23.1 19.4 9.7 30.0 3.4 Increase of 1-2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.5 10.0 6.9 Increase of 2-3% 10.0 6.5 15.4 9.7 9.7 20.0 3.4 Increase of 3-4% 10.0 32.3 19.2 41.9 22.6 13.3 27.6 Increase of 4-5% 6.7 25.8 19.2 22.6 12.9 20.0 20.7 Increase of 5-7.5% 3.3 9.7 3.8 0.0 6.5 3.3 13.8 Increase of 7.5-10% 3.3 9.7 7.7 0.0 16.1 0.0 3.4 Increase of 10-12.5% 6.7 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 Increase of more than 12.5% 3.3 9.7 7.7 0.0 6.5 0.0 10.3 ------------------------------------ ------- -------------------------------- Median Exp. Change -1-1% 4-5% 3-4% 3-4% 3-4% 2-3% 4-5% Median Exp. Change (Jan. 2025) 1-2% 2-3% 1-3% 3-4% 3-4% 2-3% 3-4% *The firms responded to more detailed changes than shown in the provided ranges. Summary of Returns April 2025 April vs. March Six Months from Now vs. April Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 12.5 12.5 40.6 38.9 -26.4 5.6 35.9 25.2 29.0 6.9 Conditions New Orders 8.7 10.7 44.4 44.9 -34.2 2.3 35.6 27.3 29.1 6.6 Shipments 2.0 15.4 59.2 24.5 -9.1 11.3 37.1 25.6 32.2 5.0 Unfilled Orders 0.6 13.0 72.8 14.1 -1.1 -0.6 27.5 52.7 16.1 11.4 Delivery Times 4.1 8.7 76.1 11.4 -2.6 3.9 15.8 64.9 15.6 0.2 Inventories -5.7 16.6 57.7 17.5 -0.9 10.0 23.1 45.2 23.3 -0.2 Prices Paid 48.3 53.8 35.6 2.7 51.0 44.6 63.1 30.1 0.0 63.1 Prices Received 29.8 30.7 64.1 0.0 30.7 39.7 68.1 27.3 0.4 67.7 Number of Emp. 19.7 6.0 83.5 5.9 0.2 17.3 21.8 49.7 22.3 -0.6 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 8.7 4.9 76.0 17.6 -12.7 0.0 13.7 65.1 14.9 -1.2 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 13.4 12.2 74.2 10.3 2.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through April 14, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: April 17, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. March 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from March 10 to March 17. Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall but was less widespread, according to the firms responding to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments declined but remained positive. The employment index rose to a multiyear high. Both price indexes remain elevated. The survey's future indicators suggest less widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Remain Positive but Decline The diffusion index for current general activity declined from 18.1 to 12.5 in March, its second consecutive decrease. Almost 31 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (down from 41 percent last month), while 18 percent reported decreases (down from 23 percent); 47 percent reported no change (up from 35 percent). The indexes for new orders and shipments fell more sharply: The new orders index fell 13 points to 8.7, and the shipments index dropped 24 points to 2.0. The firms continued to report overall increases in employment, and the employment index increased from 5.3 to 19.7 this month, its highest reading since October 2022. Almost 22 percent of the firms reported increases, while 2 percent reported decreases, and 71 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels. The average workweek index rose 6 points to 8.7. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases The prices paid index increased 8 points to 48.3, its fourth consecutive increase and highest reading since July 2022. Over 48 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases; 48 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index moved down 3 points to 29.8. Thirty percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, none reported decreases, and 66 percent reported no change. Firms Report Lower Production, Little Change in Capacity Utilization In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the first quarter ending this month compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 (see Special Questions). A higher share of firms reported a decrease in production (47 percent) compared with the share reporting an increase (34 percent). Regarding firms' capacity utilization for the current quarter and one year ago, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was unchanged at 70 to 80 percent. Over 53 percent of the firms reported labor supply as at least a slight constraint to capacity utilization in the current quarter, and 47 percent of the firms cited supply chains as a constraint. Additionally, 79 percent of the firms indicated that uncertainty was at least a slight constraint this quarter, with 30 percent categorizing the impact as moderate and 24 percent categorizing it as significant. Looking ahead over the next three months, most firms expect the impacts of various factors to stay the same. However, 64 percent of the firms expect the impact of uncertainty to worsen over the next three months, and 44 percent expect supply chain impacts to worsen. The firms were also asked about their plans for different categories of capital expenditures for this year relative to 2024. The share of firms expecting higher total capital spending this year (23 percent) slightly exceeded the share expecting lower spending (20 percent), and 57 percent expect spending to be the same. When this question was last asked in October, over 51 percent of the firms had expected higher spending, 21 percent had expected lower spending, and 27 percent had expected the same spending for 2025 relative to 2024. Expectations for Growth Are Less Widespread The diffusion index for future general activity fell 22 points to 5.6 in March, its lowest reading since January 2024. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (31 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (26 percent); 37 percent expect no change. The future new orders index dropped 31 points to 2.3, its lowest reading since May 2023, and the shipments index fell 25 points to 11.3, its lowest reading since June. The firms continue to expect an overall increase in employment, but the future employment index declined from 23.7 to 17.3. The future capital expenditures index was little changed at 13.4. Summary Responses to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity expanded overall this month. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments all declined but remained positive. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment and continued to report increases in prices. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest less widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (March 2025) 1. How will your firm's total production for the first quarter of 2025 compare with that of the fourth quarter of 2024? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 12.5 5-10% 6.3 0-5% 15.6 Subtotal 34.4 (% of firms reporting an increase) No change 18.8 A decline of: 0-5% 21.9 5-10% 9.4 10% or more 15.6 Subtotal 46.9 (% of firms reporting a decrease) 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2025:Q1) and one year ago (2024:Q1)? 2025:Q1 2024:Q1 Capacity Utilization Rate % of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 0.0 0.0 30-40% 0.0 6.1 40-50% 3.1 6.1 50-60% 15.6 6.1 60-70% 21.9 12.1 70-80% 34.4 45.5 80-90% 21.9 15.2 90-100% 3.1 9.1 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 84.4 9.4 3.1 3.1 Financial capital 90.6 6.3 0.0 3.1 Labor supply 46.9 25.0 12.5 15.6 Supply chains 53.1 28.1 9.4 9.4 Uncertainty 21.2 24.2 30.3 24.2 Other factors 73.7 0.0 5.3 21.1 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) Energy markets 21.9 68.8 9.4 Financial capital 16.1 80.6 3.2 Labor supply 15.6 75.0 9.4 Supply chains 43.8 56.3 0.0 Uncertainty 63.6 27.3 9.1 Other factors 27.8 66.7 5.6 5. Comparing 2025 with 2024, do you expect capital expenditures to be higher, the same, or lower for each of the following categories? Higher Same Lower Diffusion --------(% of reporters)------- Index Total capital spending 23.3 56.7 20.0 3.3 Software 29.0 58.1 12.9 16.1 Noncomputer equipment 25.8 54.8 19.4 6.5 Energy-saving investments 7.4 64.5 18.5 -11.1 Computer and related hardware 16.1 74.2 9.7 6.5 Structure 9.7 64.5 20.7 -11.0 Other 5.6 83.3 11.1 -5.6 Summary of Returns March 2025 March vs. February Six Months from Now vs. March Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 18.1 30.6 46.7 18.1 12.5 27.8 31.4 37.1 25.8 5.6 Conditions New Orders 21.9 31.8 40.6 23.2 8.7 33.1 31.6 32.2 29.3 2.3 Shipments 26.3 18.5 57.5 16.5 2.0 36.5 38.8 29.7 27.5 11.3 Unfilled Orders 1.4 16.1 63.4 15.5 0.6 11.0 19.0 55.1 19.6 -0.6 Delivery Times 12.4 14.1 70.0 10.0 4.1 -1.2 13.2 70.5 9.3 3.9 Inventories -0.4 15.2 63.8 21.0 -5.7 16.4 24.1 51.7 14.0 10.0 Prices Paid 40.5 48.3 47.6 0.0 48.3 58.6 45.9 45.5 1.3 44.6 Prices Received 32.9 30.0 66.4 0.3 29.8 46.1 42.2 45.3 2.5 39.7 Number of Emp. 5.3 21.6 70.7 2.0 19.7 23.7 27.9 58.2 10.6 17.3 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 2.9 15.1 75.5 6.3 8.7 11.6 14.5 64.6 14.5 0.0 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 14.0 24.6 57.9 11.1 13.4 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through March 17, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: March 20, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. February 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from February 10 to February 17. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand, according to the firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Although the survey's indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments declined, readings remain elevated. The employment index declined but remained positive. Both price indexes rose and remain above their long-run averages. The firms continue to expect growth over the next six months, although expectations were less widespread. Most Current Indicators Decline but Remain Elevated The diffusion index for current general activity fell from 44.3 to 18.1 in February but remains above its long-run nonrecession average. Almost 41 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (down from 51 percent last month), while 23 percent reported decreases (up from 7 percent); 35 percent reported no change (down from 41 percent last month). The indexes for new orders and shipments also declined but remained elevated relative to their long-run averages: The new orders index dropped 21 points to 21.9, and the shipments index fell 15 points to 26.3. The employment index remained positive but declined 7 points to 5.3, offsetting its increase last month. Nearly 85 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month, while the share of firms reporting increases (10 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (5 percent). The average workweek index fell from 20.5 to 2.9. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases Both price indexes rose to their highest readings in over two years. The prices paid index increased 9 points to 40.5, its highest reading since October 2022. Over 45 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 5 percent reported decreases; half of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index moved up 3 points to 32.9, its highest reading since November 2022. Almost 34 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 1 percent reported decreases, and 66 percent reported no change. Firms' Expectations for Own Prices Remain Unchanged In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms' median forecast was for an expected increase of 3.0 percent, unchanged from when this question was last asked in November. The firms reported a median increase of 3.0 percent in their own prices over the past year, the same as last quarter. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.9 percent over the next four quarters, up from 3.4 percent in November. The firms' median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was also unchanged at 3.0 percent. Firms Continue to Expect Future Growth The diffusion index for future general activity declined from 46.3 to 27.8 in February. The future new orders and shipments indexes both declined 24 points, to 33.1 and 36.5, respectively. The future prices paid index declined from 67.3 to 58.6, and the future prices received index declined from 53.6 to 46.1. The firms continue to expect overall increases in employment, but the future employment index fell from 40.4 to 23.7. The future capital expenditures index fell 25 points to 14.0, its lowest reading since August. Most firms (72 percent) expect steady capital expenditures, 21 percent expect increases, and 6 percent expect decreases. Summary Responses to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity continued to expand this month. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments remained elevated. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the price indexes remained above their long-run averages. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (February 2025) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Nov. 2024) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2025Q1-2026Q1) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 3.0 3.0 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.9 3.4 Last year's price change (2024Q1-2025Q1) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 3.0 3.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 3.0 3.0 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2025-2034). 3.0 3.0 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. Summary of Returns February 2025 February vs. January Six Months from Now vs. February Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 44.3 40.5 34.7 22.5 18.1 46.3 46.3 32.8 18.5 27.8 Conditions New Orders 42.9 46.1 28.2 24.2 21.9 57.3 46.8 39.5 13.7 33.1 Shipments 41.0 43.7 33.9 17.4 26.3 60.2 51.7 32.1 15.2 36.5 Unfilled Orders 24.0 20.3 59.8 18.9 1.4 14.5 21.5 68.1 10.4 11.0 Delivery Times 6.8 16.5 79.3 4.1 12.4 0.5 12.4 74.0 13.6 -1.2 Inventories 11.7 16.1 61.1 16.5 -0.4 20.2 26.5 62.7 10.1 16.4 Prices Paid 31.9 45.3 49.9 4.8 40.5 67.3 58.6 41.4 0.0 58.6 Prices Received 29.7 33.5 65.9 0.6 32.9 53.6 46.1 53.9 0.0 46.1 Number of Emp. 11.9 10.4 84.6 5.1 5.3 40.4 29.3 64.7 5.6 23.7 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 20.5 7.4 88.0 4.5 2.9 14.9 13.7 84.3 2.0 11.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 39.0 20.5 71.6 6.4 14.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through February 17, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: February 20, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. January 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from January 6 to January 13. Manufacturing activity in the region increased overall, according to the firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments rose sharply and reached multiyear highs. The employment index moved higher and continues to suggest increasing levels of employment overall. The price indexes indicate overall increases in prices, and both indexes rose above their long-run averages. The survey's broad indicators for future activity rose, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Rise Sharply The diffusion index for current general activity jumped from a revised reading of -10.9 in December to 44.3 in January, its highest reading since April 2021.* This is the index's largest monthly increase since June 2020. Nearly 51 percent of the firms reported increases (up from 19 percent last month), far exceeding the 7 percent reporting decreases (down from 30 percent); 41 percent of the firms reported no change in current activity (down from 45 percent). The indexes for current new orders and current shipments both also rose sharply in January. The new orders index rose 47 points to 42.9, its highest reading since November 2021. Meanwhile, the shipments index increased 39 points to 41.0, its highest reading since October 2020. On balance, the firms continued to report an increase in employment. The employment index rose 7 points to 11.9 in January. Almost 87 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month. Nearly 13 percent reported increases, while 1 percent reported decreases. The average workweek index turned positive, rising from a revised reading of -3.7 to 20.3, its highest reading since March 2022. Price Indexes Move Above Long-Run Averages On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in prices, with both price indexes rising to recent highs. The prices paid index rose 5 points to 31.9 in January, its highest reading since December 2022. Nearly 36 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 4 percent reported decreases; 60 percent reported no change. The current prices received index jumped 24 points to 29.7, its highest reading since January 2023. Almost 35 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods (up from 9 percent last month), 5 percent reported decreases (little changed), and 60 percent reported no change (down from 85 percent). Firms Expect Smaller Cost Increases for 2025 In this month's special questions, the firms were asked about changes in their various input and labor costs over the past year and their expectations for changes in costs for the coming year (see Special Questions). For all categories, the average percent change in costs expected for 2025 was smaller than the average percent change in costs reported for 2024. The respondents were also asked to rank the importance of various factors in setting prices. Demand for their own goods/services was the most important factor, followed by maintaining steady profit margins, wage and labor costs, and nonlabor costs. Most Future Indicators Strengthen Further The diffusion index for future general activity rose from a revised reading of 33.8 in December to 46.3 in January. Nearly 54 percent of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 7 percent that expect a decrease; 36 percent expect no change. The future new orders index increased 5 points to 57.3, and the future shipments index rose 11 points to 60.2, its highest reading since July 2021. On balance, the firms continue to expect increases in employment over the next six months, and the future employment index rose 8 points to 40.4, its highest reading since December 2021. Both future price indexes were above their long-run averages: The future prices paid index increased 9 points to 67.3, its highest reading since January 2022; the future prices received index edged down 1 point to 53.6. The index for future capital expenditures rose 17 points to 39.0, its highest reading since July 2021. Summary Responses to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest an overall increase in the region's manufacturing activity. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments all rose sharply. On balance, the firms continued to indicate overall increases in prices, and both price indexes rose above their long-run averages. The firms also continued to report increasing employment levels. The survey's broad indicators for future activity rose, suggesting more widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. *The survey's annual data revisions, which incorporate updated seasonal factors, were released on January 9, 2025. The full history of revised data is available at https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/mbos-historical-data. Special Questions (January 2025) 1. What were the percentage changes in costs for the following categories for 2024, and what do you expect they will be for 2025? 2024 2025 (Actual) (Expected) Average Median Average Median (%) (%) (%) (%) Energy 2.5 2-4 1.6 1-2 Other Raw Materials 3.3 3-4 2.4 2-3 Intermediate Goods 2.1 2-3 2.0 1-3 Wages 2.8 3-4 2.7 3-4 Health Benefits 6.3 5-7.5 3.7 3-4 Nonhealth Benefits 4.1 3-4 2.6 2-3 Wages + Health Benefits + Nonhealth Benefits 4.5 4-5 4.1 3-4 Note: Respondents selected ranges of percentage changes. The average percent change is calculated using the midpoints of the ranges of each answer option. 2. Currently, when you think about setting the prices of your goods/services, how important to you are the following factors in making those decisions? Weighted Average* (%) Your competitors' prices 66 The strength of demand for your most important good(s) or service(s) 84 Your wages and labor costs (including benefits) 74 Your nonlabor costs, such as energy prices, materials prices, transportation costs, rent, etc. 71 Maintaining steady profit margins (for price over costs) 78 Interest rates, borrowing rates, and the cost of capital 35 Problems with your supply chains, such as bottlenecks and product shortages 47 The overall rate of inflation in the U.S. economy, as measured by the Consumer Price Index 57 Other 40 *Respondents reported importance on a scale of 1 (least important) to 5 (most important). The weighted average gives 1 a weight of 0; 2 a weight of 0.25; 3 a weight of 0.5; 4 a weight of 0.75; and 5 a weight of 1. Summary of Returns January 2025 January vs. December Six Months from Now vs. January Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -10.9 50.9 40.7 6.6 44.3 33.8 53.6 35.6 7.2 46.3 Conditions New Orders -3.6 49.2 44.6 6.3 42.9 52.1 64.5 28.3 7.2 57.3 Shipments 1.7 48.3 44.3 7.4 41.0 48.8 68.0 24.1 7.8 60.2 Unfilled Orders 18.3 26.1 67.8 2.1 24.0 15.3 28.8 57.0 14.3 14.5 Delivery Times 9.2 7.7 91.4 0.9 6.8 7.1 14.4 71.0 13.9 0.5 Inventories -3.8 23.8 62.8 12.1 11.7 18.5 31.1 55.5 10.9 20.2 Prices Paid 26.6 35.8 60.3 3.9 31.9 58.3 70.5 26.4 3.1 67.3 Prices Received 5.6 34.6 59.6 4.9 29.7 54.9 54.2 44.8 0.7 53.6 Number of Emp. 4.8 12.6 86.7 0.7 11.9 32.6 43.9 50.4 3.5 40.4 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -3.7 20.5 79.5 0.0 20.5 21.0 18.6 75.5 3.7 14.9 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 22.2 40.4 58.1 1.4 39.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through January 13, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: January 16, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET.