Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey November 2025 Note: Survey responses were collected from November 10 to November 17. Manufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current general activity index rose but remained negative, while the new orders and shipments indexes both turned negative. The employment index continued to suggest overall increases. Both price indexes continued to suggest overall price increases. Expectations for growth over the next six months were more widespread. Most Current Indicators Weaken The diffusion index for current general activity increased 11 points to -1.7 in November after a sharp decline in October. The share of responses indicating decreases (31 percent) narrowly exceeded the share indicating increases (29 percent); 40 percent reported no change. The new orders and shipments indexes both declined and turned negative. The new orders index fell 27 points to -8.6, its lowest reading since April, and the shipments index dropped 15 points to -8.7, its first negative reading since May. The firms continued to report overall increases in employment, and the employment index ticked up 1 point to 6.0. Most firms continued to report no change in employment levels (75 percent), while the share of firms reporting increases (16 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (10 percent). The average workweek index fell from 12.8 to 3.7. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases The prices paid index remained well elevated and increased 7 points to 56.1. Most firms (59 percent) reported increases in prices paid, 3 percent of the firms reported decreases, and 39 percent reported no change. The current prices received index fell 9 points to 17.7, more than offsetting last month's increase, and remained above its long-run average. Firms Expect Lower Growth for Prices from Last Quarter In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Price and Inflation Expectations). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms' median forecast was for an expected increase of 3.0 percent, down from 4.1 percent when this question was last asked in August. The firms also reported a median increase of 3.0 percent in their own prices over the past year, down from 3.5 percent. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.3 percent over the next four quarters, down slightly from 3.5 percent in August. The firms' median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year declined from 3.6 percent to 3.0 percent. The firms were also asked about changes in core customer price sensitivity and anticipated cost changes (see Special Questions). Forty percent of the firms reported customers were more price sensitive since last quarter, while half reported customers' sensitivity was about the same. Almost 61 percent of the firms indicated they anticipate changes in their industry's costs in the near term, and nearly 69 percent of those firms expect their competitors to raise prices in response. Regarding when these price changes will occur, the firms' median expectation was for competitors to change prices in the next three months. Growth Expectations Are More Widespread The diffusion index for future general activity increased from 36.2 to 49.6, its highest reading in a year. The future new orders index rose to 55.6, its highest reading since January, and the future shipments index was unchanged at 48.4. Both future price indexes remained elevated and moved higher. The future capital expenditures index ticked up 2 points to 26.7. Summary Responses to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity weakened this month. The indicator for current activity remained negative, and the indexes for new orders and shipments turned negative. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment. The prices paid index rose further above its long-run average, while the prices received index moved lower but remained elevated. Future indicators suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. Special Questions (November 2025) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Aug. 2025) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2025Q4-2026Q4) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 3.0 4.1 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.3 3.5 Last year's price change (2024Q4-2025Q4) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 3.0 3.5 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 3.0 3.6 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2025-2034). 3.0 3.0 Note: For questions 1-5, the numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. 6. Since last quarter, have your core customers become more or less price sensitive? Percent (%) More sensitive 40.0 About the same 50.0 Less sensitive 6.7 Don't know 3.3 7. Over the near term (roughly the next six months or so), can you clearly anticipate any changes in your industry's costs? Percent (%) Yes 60.7 No 39.3 7a. How do you anticipate that your competitors will respond?* Percent (%) Raise prices 68.8 Hold prices steady 12.5 Lower prices 12.5 Don't know 6.3 *Only firms that responded "yes" to question 7 responded to question 7a. 7b. How soon do you anticipate your competitors will change prices?** Number of Months Median Response 3.0 **Only firms that responded "raise prices" or "lower prices" to question 7a responded to question 7b. Summary of Returns November 2025 November vs. October Six Months from Now vs. November Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -12.8 29.2 39.8 31.0 -1.7 36.2 54.3 36.4 4.7 49.6 Activity New Orders 18.2 25.6 40.2 34.2 -8.6 49.8 60.1 34.4 4.6 55.6 Shipments 6.0 21.5 47.4 30.2 -8.7 48.4 54.0 39.5 5.6 48.4 Unfilled Orders -2.2 19.8 53.9 26.3 -6.5 19.2 20.4 73.2 5.4 15.0 Delivery Times 6.6 14.1 67.6 18.3 -4.3 9.3 13.9 77.5 8.6 5.3 Inventories 5.4 24.7 49.7 22.0 2.7 0.9 24.5 66.6 8.9 15.6 Prices Paid 49.2 58.6 38.7 2.5 56.1 59.8 75.1 24.9 0.0 75.1 Prices Received 26.8 25.9 66.0 8.2 17.7 45.7 56.8 43.2 0.0 56.8 Number of Emp. 4.6 15.6 74.8 9.6 6.0 21.4 36.1 63.1 0.3 35.7 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 12.8 9.7 84.3 6.0 3.7 10.6 28.2 71.8 0.0 28.2 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 25.2 26.7 72.4 0.0 26.7 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through November 17, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: November 20, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET.