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Saturday, March 20, 2010

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Home > Research & Data > Real-Time Data Research Center > Survey of Professional Forecasters > Probability Variables

Probability Variables: Survey of Professional Forecasters

The probability variables from all surveys (mean responses) since the fourth quarter of 1968 are available in the data set listed below. This data set is in Excel format. It may be helpful to read the documentation listed below before accessing the data set.

Probabilities for Extended Forecast Horizons

In recent surveys (beginning with that of 2009 Q2), we extended the forecast horizon of the density forecasts for real GDP growth and unemployment. The extension covers two additional years. These data are not available in the files below. However, they are available on the survey's home page under "Historical SPF Forecast Data," "Special Variables and Special Questions."

• Mean Probability Data (203 KB; last update: February 12, 2010)
• Documentation (236 KB, 28 pages; last update: February 12, 2010)

Return to the main page for the Survey of Professional Forecasters.