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Tuesday, September 2, 2014

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Fourth Quarter 2009 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Special Questions

In this survey, we asked the panelists to provide their annual projections for real GDP and unemployment over a horizon two years longer than the normal one. The extension covers the years 2011 and 2012. We also asked the panelists for their corresponding density forecasts. The panelists normally provide real GDP density forecasts for the current and following calendar years. Thus, the additional real GDP densities cover 2011 and 2012. The panelists do not normally provide density forecasts for unemployment.

The projections and densities for real GDP use the annual-average level. The projections and densities for unemployment also use the annual-average level.

Additionally, this survey introduces extended point forecasts for the annual average three-month Treasury bill and 10-year Treasury bond rate, for years 2011 and 2012.

We instructed the panelists to provide their point and density forecasts for 2011 and 2012 only if they usually forecast over such a long horizon.

The Excel file below provides a record of all the panelists' responses to these questions. Each row of the file corresponds to a single participant's response. Additional documentation and a detailed explanation can be found in the Excel file.

View the individual responses to the special questions. Excel spreadsheet (84 KB)

Return to the main page for the Survey of Professional Forecasters.