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Saturday, April 19, 2014

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Fourth Quarter 2007 Survey of Professional Forecasters: Special Questions

In a special question in this survey, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia asked its panelists for their views on inflation targeting. Specifically, the following three questions were asked:

  1. Do you think the FOMC has a numerical target for long-run inflation (that is, inflation over the next 10 years)? Please answer Yes or No.
  2. If you answered Yes, please list (a) the measure of inflation and (b) the numerical target.
    1. Please list the measure of inflation, choosing one measure from the following: CPI, core CPI, PCE, core PCE
    2. Please list the numerical target (annualized percentage points).
  3. If your numerical target in 2(b) differs from your forecast for inflation over the next 10 years, please explain why.

The Excel file below provides a record of all the panelists' responses to these three questions. Each row of the file corresponds to a single participant's response.

  • The first two columns state the year and quarter of the survey. The column labeled ID shows the ID number for the participant.
  • The answer to Question 1 is recorded in the column titled Target. A value of 1 corresponds to "Yes," a 2 corresponds to "No," and a 3 corresponds to no response given.
  • Answers given for Question 2(a) are recorded in the column titled Measure. A value of 1 corresponds to "CPI," a 2 corresponds to "Core CPI," a 3 corresponds to "PCE," a 4 corresponds to "Core PCE," and a 5 corresponds to no response given.
  • Answers for Question 2(b) are recorded in the column titled Value. This column contains the numerical inflation target supplied by each participant or a value of "-99" if no response was given.
  • Answers for Question 3 are recorded in the column Text. This column contains the participant's response to Question 3 or a value of "None" if no response was given.

View the individual responses to the special questions. Excel spreadsheet (20 KB)

Return to the main page for the Survey of Professional Forecasters.