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Friday, October 31, 2014

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Changes to the Real-Time Data Set

This page will list any errata or new variables added to the data set after its first appearance on the web on June 10, 1999.

On September 22, 2000, substantial changes were made to the real-time data set. Additional data on M1, filling in missing observations, were added to a number of vintages. Also, two variables were added to the data set in all vintages from November 1965 to the present: corporate profits (NCPROFAT) and import prices (PIMP).

For corporate profits (NCPROFAT), data that had been reported in a special file from a Business Review article by Dean Croushore have now been incorporated into the spreadsheets for each vintage and the special file has been removed. In addition, three erroneous observations in that special file were deleted: in the November 1967 vintage, the observation for 1967Q3; in the November 1989 vintage, the observation for 1989Q3; and in the November 1997 vintage, the observation for 1997Q3.

On August 22, 2001, the monthly file May96.wk1 was replaced. The previous version omitted the variable RUC; that variable has now been added.

On July 8, 2002, the new data set on monthly payroll employment data was added as a separate data set.

On October 23, 2002, several variables were cleaned up in certain vintages. First, a minor change was made to data on nonborrowed reserves plus extended credit, BOG measure adjusted for changes in reserve requirements (NBRECBASA). Observations in vintages May 1982, August 1982, November 1983, and February 1984 were deleted because recent observations were likely to have been revised but we do not have the revision report.

Second, several corrections were made to data on M1. In the February 1980 vintage, the observation for July 1969 in the monthly data set was corrected; this also changed the observation for 1969:Q3 in the quarterly data set. In that same vintage, data for January 1979 to January 1980 were corrected (the incorrect data were not seasonally adjusted; they were replaced with the correct data that are seasonally adjusted) in the monthly data set and 1979:Q1 to 1980:Q1 in the quarterly data set.

Third, additional data were added for M1 and M2. The vintage February 1980, which had been missing previously, was added for M2 in both monthly and quarterly data sets. Vintages February 1981, May 1981, and August 1981, which had been missing previously, were added for both M1 and M2 in both the monthly and quarterly data sets.

On December 13, 2002, one change was made to the real output variable (ROUTPUT) in vintage November 1976. The value for the observation for 1959:Q2 was changed from 726.2 to 726.3 and the value for the observation for 1959:Q4 was changed from 726.3 to 726.2.

On March 5, 2003, one change was made to the real business fixed investment variable (RINVBF) in vintages from February 1996 to May 1997. The value for the observation for 1987:Q3 was changed from 533.8 to 553.8, correcting a typo.

On July 9, 2003, new data sets on industrial production and capacity utilization were added.

On July 16, 2004, new data sets on real federal and state & local government consumption and gross investment were added.

On February 2, 2005, new data sets on nominal personal saving and nominal disposable personal income were added.

On March 8, 2005, new data sets on nominal personal consumption expenditures and nominal personal income were added.

On April 3, 2006, a new data set on housing starts was added.

On April 11, 2006, a new data set on indexes of aggregate weekly hours (total, goods sector, service sector) was added.

On May 22, 2006, we made the following changes to the variables NOUTPUT (nominal GDP), RINVCHI (real change in inventories), and RG (real government consumption and gross investment):

  • NOUTPUT — In the vintage of May 1997, we reentered the observations that were listed in the May 1997 Survey of Current Business. This resulted in very small changes to the data that appeared previously in this vintage. The changes affected the observation for 1957:Q3, changing it from 464.4 to 466.4, and the observations for the period 1967:Q1 to 1994:Q1.
  • RINVCHI — In the vintage of May 1997, we changed the observations over the period 1959:Q3 to 1996:Q2. We were able to determine that the observations for the period 1959:Q3 to 1991:Q4 should be the same as those recorded in the vintage for August 1997. The observations for the period 1992:Q1 to 1997:Q1 were taken from the May 1997 Survey of Current Business (Table 1.4). We made no changes to the last three observations in the May 1997 vintage because they were recorded correctly.
  • RG — In the vintages beginning with February 1996 and ending with May 1997 (six vintages), we changed the observation for 1991:Q1 from 1262.2 to 1262.6. We did this on the basis of the deep history reported in the November/December 1995 Survey of Current Business and in the May 1997 Survey of Current Business.

On September 6, 2006, one change was made to the nonfarm payroll employment variable (EMPLOY) in the vintage for October 1982 (EMPLOY82M10). We changed the observation for 1982:8 from 89,368 to 89,268.

On September 11, 2006, we changed the observations for housing starts in the vintage of December 1995 (Hstarts95M12). Because of the shutdown of the federal government, the Census Bureau did not release its usual report for this vintage, and we have replaced the observations in this vintage with those that were available in the vintage for November.

On December 14, 2007, some minor changes were made to the nominal output variable (NOUTPUT) and the output price index (P). For nominal output in the quarterly vintages for February 1991 through November 1991, we changed the observation for 1975:Q2 from 1,562.5 to 1,563.5. This correction produced a change in the data for the output price index, which over this span of vintages, is constructed as the ratio of nominal output to real output.

On October 10, 2008, we made the following changes to corporate profits after tax excluding IVA and CCAdj (NCPROFAT) in the vintage for 1981Q1:

  • The observation for 1980Q1 was changed from 146.2 to 182.9;
  • The observation for 1980Q2 was changed from 117.1 to 146.5;
  • The observation for 1980Q3 was changed from 128.2 to 159.1.

On October 17, 2008, we made the following changes to corporate profits after tax excluding IVA and CCAdj (NCPROFAT):

  • The observations for 1986Q2 in vintages 1987Q3 to 1988Q2 were changed from 122.8 to 122.3;
  • The observations for 1987Q2 in vintages 1988Q3 to 1989Q2 were changed from 141.4 to 141.1; and
  • The observations for 1982Q1 in vintages 1992Q1 to 1995Q4 were changed from 114.3 to 114.4.

On March 31, 2009, we added one new data set for nominal corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj (NCPROFATW).

We also added monthly vintages for two variables whose vintage frequency was previously quarterly: GNP/GDP price index (P) and nominal corporate profits after tax without IVA and CCAdj (NCPROFAT).

On April 8, 2009, we made the following changes to nominal personal income (NPI):

  • The observations for 1969Q1 in vintages 1992Q1 to 1992Q4 were changed from 747.7 to 747.4.

On June 30, 2009, we added 11 new variables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis's report on personal income and its disposition: Wage and Salary Disbursements (WSD); Other Labor Income (OLI); Proprietors' Income (PROPI); Rental Income of Persons (RENTI); Dividends (DIV); Personal Interest Income (PINTI); Transfer Payments (TRANR); Personal Contributions for Social Insurance (SSCONTRIB); Personal Tax and Nontax Payments (PTAX); Interest Paid by Consumers (PINTPAID); Personal Transfer Payments to Foreigners (TRANPF).

On August 24, 2009, we changed the data for social security contributions in the personal income report (SSCONTRIB) in the vintage for 2009Q3. The change affects all observations beginning with that for 1995Q1.

On June 14, 2010, we augmented our quarterly vintages of quarterly observations with new monthly vintages for the following variables: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RCON); Real Personal Consumption Expenditures on Durable Goods (RCOND); Real Personal Consumption Expenditures on Nondurable Goods (RCONND); Real Personal Consumption Expenditures on Services (RCONS).

On June 14, 2010, we added monthly vintages of monthly observations for the following variables: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (RCONM); Real Personal Consumption Expenditures on Durable Goods (RCONDM); Real Personal Consumption Expenditures on Nondurable Goods (RCONNDM); Real Personal Consumption Expenditures on Services (RCONSM).

On June 14, 2010, we added 24 variables from the national income and product accounts. The Bureau of Economic Analysis first added these variables to the national accounts in its benchmark revision of July 2009. The variables and their Philadelphia Fed mnemonics are shown in the table below.

Summary of June 14, 2010 Changes
Description
Philadelphia Fed Mnemonic
Quarterly Obs
Monthly Obs
1. Nominal Variables (Billions of Dollars)
Personal Consumption Expenditures, Goods
Household Consumption Expenditures for Services
Final Consumption Expenditures of NPISH
Household Consumption Expenditures
2. Real Variables (Billions of Dollars, Chain-Weight)
Personal Consumption Expenditures, Goods
Household Consumption Expenditures for Services
Final Consumption Expenditures of NPISH
Household Consumption Expenditures
3. Price Indexes (Base Year Value = 100)
Personal Consumption Expenditures, Goods
Household Consumption Expenditures for Services
Final Consumption Expenditures of NPISH
Household Consumption Expenditures

On March 31, 2011, we added five variables to the data set. These variables are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The variables and their Philadelphia Fed mnemonics are shown in the table below.

Summary of March 31, 2011 Changes
Description
Philadelphia Fed Mnemonic
Quarterly Obs
Monthly Obs
Civilian Labor Force, 16+
N/A
Civilian Noninstitutional Population, 16+
N/A
Civilian Participation Rate, 16+, Constructed
N/A
Output Per Hour: Business Sector
N/A
Unit Labor Costs: Business Sector
N/A

The civilian participation rate was constructed with the equation below. The variables LFC and POP are the civilian labor force and the civilian noninstitutional population, both for individuals of age 16 years and older, collected electronically in real time by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Equation to construct civilian participation rate.

On September 29, 2011, we augmented our quarterly vintages of quarterly observations with new monthly vintages for the following variables: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Nonresidential (RINVBF); Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Residential (RINVRESID); Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Change in Private Inventories (RINVCHI).

On March 12, 2012, we added monthly vintages of monthly observations for the following four variables: Consumer Price Index (PCPI); Core Consumer Price Index (PCPIX); Producer Price Index, Finished Goods (PPPI); Core Producer Price Index, Finished Goods (PPPIX). These variables are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In June 2013, we added time series of first-, second-, and third-release values for many macroeconomic variables in the Philadelphia Fed's real-time data set for macroeconomists (RTDSM).

In June 2013, we added monthly vintages of quarterly observations for the following three variables: Real Exports of Goods and Services (REX); Real Imports of Goods and Services (RIMP); Real Net Exports of Goods and Services (RNX).The vintage frequency for REX and RIMP was previously quarterly. RNX is a new variable.

Beginning with the July 11, 2013, H.3 statistical report, the Board of Governors has discontinued a number of series in its H.3 statistical release for "Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base." Four of the series appear in the real time data set. The series are:

  • Total reserves, break adjusted, seasonally adjusted (TRBASA);
  • Nonborrowed reserves, break adjusted, seasonally adjusted (NBRBASA);
  • Nonborrowed reserves plus extended credit, break adjusted, seasonally adjusted (NBRECBASA);
  • Monetary base, break adjusted, seasonally adjusted (BASEBASA).

The reason the Board has dropped these variables (and others) is that the Board's procedure for break-adjusting the series for changes in reserve requirements is no longer valid due to the large amount of excess reserves in the banking system since 2008.

We will no longer provide updates for these variables. However, we will continue to keep the current files on the web page, but they will be static.

In October 2014, we added monthly vintages of quarterly observations for the following three variables: Real Government Consumption & Gross Investment: Total (RG); Real Government Consumption & Gross Investment: Federal (RGF); Real Government Consumption & Gross Investment: State and Local (RGSL).The vintage frequency for RG, RGF, and RGSL was previously quarterly.

Return to the Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists.

  • Last update: July 16, 2013