2010 Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications

October 18-19, 2010
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Program

8:30 a.m.	Continental breakfast
9:00 a.m.	Marcelle Chauvert (UC Riverside), Zeynep Senyuz (University of New Hampshire), Emre Yoldas (Bentley): What Does Realized Volatility Tell Us About Macroeconomic Fluctuations? (291 KB, 37 pages)
10:00 a.m.	Break
10:30 a.m.	Thomas Gilbert (University of Washington), Chiara Scotti (BOG), Georg Strasser (Boston College), Clara Vega (BOG): Why Do Certain Macroeconomic News Announcements Have a Big Impact on Asset Prices? (415 KB, 43 pages)
11:30 a.m.	Min Wei (BOG), Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins): Reverse Regressions and Long-Horizon Forecasting (306 KB, 40 pages)
12:30 p.m.	Lunch
1:30 p.m.	Plenary Talk: Hal Varian (Google)
2:30 p.m.	Marco Aiolfi (Goldman Sachs), Carlos Capistran (Bank of Mexico), Allan Timmermann (UCSD): Forecast Combinations (412 KB, 33 pages)
3:30 p.m.	Edward Herbst, Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania): Evaluating VAR and DSGE Model Predictions of Comovements (1.88 KB, 57 pages)
4:30 p.m.	Break
5:00 p.m.	Pierre-Daniel Sarte (FRB Richmond): When Is Sticky Information More Information? Tracking Economic Activity Using Diffusion Indices (608 KB, 43 pages)
6:00 p.m.	Reception
7:30 p.m.	Dinner (by invitation)

8:00 a.m.	Continental breakfast
8:30 a.m.	Michael Clements (U of Warwick), Ana Beatriz Galvao (Queen Mary U): Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions (367 KB, 50 pages)
9:30 a.m.	Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee), Evan Koenig (FRB Dallas): Yield-spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real-Time VAR Analysis (144 KB, 28 pages)
10:30 a.m.	Break
11:00 a.m.	Kevin Lee (University of Leicester), Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields (University of Melbourne): Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information When Real-Time Data Are Available (587 KB, 41 pages)
12:00 noon	Panel Discussion: Athanasios Orphanides (Central Bank of Cyprus), Jacopo Cimadomo (ECB), TBA
1:00 p.m.	Lunch/Departure