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Home > Research & Data > Economists > Keith Sill

Current Working Papers

• "Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data," with Sylvain Leduc, Working Paper 10-6, February 2010.
• "The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," with Gerald Carlino and Robert DeFina, Working Paper 09-9, April 2009.
• "Macroeconomic Volatility and the Equity Premium," Working Paper 06-1, December 2005.

Publications in Refereed Journals

• "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-Modelled Variables," with Frank Schorfheide and Maxym Kryshko, International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming). Pre-publication NBER Working Paper No. 14872.
• "Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility," with Sylvain Leduc, Review of Economic Dynamics 10 (4) (October 2007).
• "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the Inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey," with Sylvain Leduc and Tom Stark, Journal of Monetary Economics, 54 (2) (March 2007) .
• "A Quantitative Analysis of Oil-Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and Economic Downturns," with Sylvain Leduc, Journal of Monetary Economics 51 (2004).
• "Sectoral Shocks and Metropolitan Employment Growth," with Gerald Carlino and Robert H. DeFina, Journal of Urban Economics 50 (2001).
• "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends and Common Cycles," with Gerald Carlino, Review of Economics and Statistics 83 (3) (August 2001).
• "An Empirical Investigation of Money Demand: Evidence from a Cash-In-Advance Model," Canadian Journal of Economics 31 (1998), pp. 125-47.
• "Macroeconomic Risk and the Determination of Expected Returns on Stocks," Managerial Finance 21:7 (1995), pp. 43-56.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review Articles

• "News About the Future and Economic Fluctuations," Fourth Quarter 2009.
• "The Evolution of the World Income Distribution," Second Quarter 2008.
• "The Macroeconomics of Oil Shocks," First Quarter 2007.
• "Do Budget Deficits Cause Inflation?," Third Quarter 2005.
• "Widening the Wage Gap: The Skill Premium and Technology," Fourth Quarter 2002.
• "The Gains from International Risk-Sharing," Third Quarter 2001.
• "Understanding Asset Values: Stock Prices, Exchange Rates, and the 'Peso Problem'," September/October 2000.
• "Forecasts, Indicators, and Monetary Policy," May/June 1999.
• "Restructuring During Recessions: The Silver Lining in the Cloud?," May/June 1998.
• "The Economic Benefits and Risks of Derivative Securities," January/February 1997.
• "The Cyclical Volatility of Interest Rates," January/February 1996.
• "Managing the Public Debt," July/August 1994.
• "Predicting Stock-Market Volatility," January/February 1993.

Unpublished Research Papers/Work in Progress

• "Precautionary Savings with Variable Effort," with Satyajit Chatterjee
• "Postwar Period Changes in Employment Volatility: New Evidence from State/Industry Panel Data," with Gerald Carlino and Robert DeFina, Working Paper 03-18, August 2003.
• "Solving and Simulating a Simple Open-Economy Model with Markov-Switching Driving Processes and Rational Learning," with Jeff Wrase, Working Paper 99-14, October 1999.
• "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Regimes in Canada and the U.S.," with Jeff Wrase, Working Paper 99-13, October 1999.
• "Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Regimes, and Beliefs," with Jeff Wrase, Working Paper 99-6.
• "Regional Employment Dynamics," Working Paper 97-28, December 1997.