Pablo Guerron

Economic Advisor and Economist

"Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Stochastic Volatility," (joint with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan Rubio-Ramírez, and Martin Uribe), forthcoming, American Economic Review.
"The Implications of Inflation in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35 (2011), pp: 947-962.
"Economic Development and Heterogeneity in the Great Moderation among the States," 2011, forthcoming, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.
"Economic Development and Volatility among the States" (joint with Asli Leblecioglu and Thomas Grennes). Economics Bulletin (2010), pp. 1963-1976.
"Reading the Recent Monetary History of the U.S., 1959-2007" (joint with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan Rubio-Ramírez) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 92 (2010), pp. 311-338.
"What You Match Does Matter: The Effects of Data on DSGE Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25 (2010), pp: 774-804.
"The New Macroeconometrics: A Bayesian Approach" (joint with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan Rubio-Ramírez) in A. O'Hagan and M. West ,eds., Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis (2010), Oxford University Press .
"Money Demand Heterogeneity and the Great Moderation," Journal of Monetary Economics 56(2009), pp. 255-266.
"Refinements on Macroeconomic Modeling: The Role of Non-Separability and Heterogeneous Labor Supply," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32 (2008), pp: 3613-3630.

"Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models," with James M. Nason, Working Paper 12-4, February 2012.
"Common and Idiosyncratic Disturbances in Developed Small Open Economies," Working Paper 12-3, January 2012.
"Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound," with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Working Paper 11-47, October 2011.
"Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Keith Kuester, and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez , Working Paper 11-32/R, January 2012.
"Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting," with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Working Paper 10-14, April 2010.
"Common Factors in Small Open Economies: Inference and Consequences," Working Paper 10-4, January 2010, superseded by Working Paper 12-3.
"Do Uncertainty and Technology Drive Exchange Rates?," Working Paper 09-20, September 2009.
"Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models," (joint with Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian ), Working Paper 09-13, July 2009

International Business Cycles in Estimated Multi-Country DSGE Models
Nonlinear Implications of Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates (joint with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Juan Rubio-Ramírez)
Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity