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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2012 Releases > Bank Releases December's Leading Indexes

Bank Releases December’s Leading Indexes

February 2, 2012

For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, Public Affairs Specialist, (215) 574-4119

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for December 2011. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes, which reflect current economic activity in each state.

About December’s Release

• Forty-four state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while six (Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Wyoming) are projected to decrease.

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index was 3.0 in December. The state experienced a decrease in initial unemployment claims and a positive growth rate in its coincident index, which reflects positive current economic activity. The index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey remained unchanged. However, building permits decreased. Overall, the leading index for December suggests expansion in the state's economy through the second quarter of 2012.
• New Jersey: The leading index was 1.6 in December. The state's coincident index rose, and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey remained unchanged. On the other hand, building permits fell, and initial unemployment claims increased. Overall, the leading index for December suggests expansion in the state's economy through the second quarter of 2012.
• Delaware: The leading index was 1.1 in December. The state experienced a positive growth rate in its coincident index, an increase in building permits, and a decrease in initial unemployment claims. The index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey stayed flat. The leading index for December suggests expansion in the state's economy through the second quarter of 2012.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank and savings and loan holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.