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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2011 Releases > Bank Releases August's Leading Indexes

Bank Releases August’s Leading Indexes

September 29, 2011

For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, Manager of Media Relations, (215) 574-4119

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for August 2011. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes, which reflect current economic activity in each state.

About August’s Release

• Thirty-seven state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while 13 are projected to decrease.

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index was -1.2 in August. The state experienced an increase in initial unemployment claims, a decrease in building permits, and a negative growth rate in its coincident index — which reflects negative current economic activity. On the other hand, the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey rose. The state's leading index for August suggests contraction in the state’s economy into the first quarter of 2012.
• New Jersey: The leading index was 2.1 in August. The state’s coincident index, building permits, and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey rose. However, initial unemployment claims increased. Overall, the state’s leading index for August suggests expansion in the state’s economy into the first quarter of 2012.
• Delaware: The leading index was 0.3 in August. Increases in building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey pushed the leading index into positive territory. However, initial unemployment claims rose, and the state experienced a negative growth rate in its coincident index. Overall, the state’s leading index for August suggests expansion in the state’s economy into the first quarter of 2012.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank and savings and loan holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.