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Home > Newsroom > Press Releases > 2011 Releases > Bank Releases April's Leading Indexes

Bank Releases April’s Leading Indexes

May 31, 2011

For immediate release
Contact: Douglas M. Bennett, Media Relations Intern, (215) 574-6177

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for April 2011. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes.

About April’s Release

• Forty-nine state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while one (Alaska) is projected to decrease.
• For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for its U.S. coincident index, which is projected to grow 2.0 percent over the next six months.

Third District Leading Indexes

• Pennsylvania: The leading index for Pennsylvania was 3.6 in April. An increase in building permits and a positive growth rate in the state’s coincident index — which reflects positive current economic activity — kept the leading index positive. However, initial unemployment claims rose slightly, and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey fell. Pennsylvania’s leading index for April suggests expansion in the state’s economy into the fourth quarter of 2011.
• New Jersey: The leading index for New Jersey was 1.7 in April. The state’s coincident index increased. However, initial unemployment claims rose, and building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey fell. Overall, New Jersey’s leading index for April suggests expansion in the state’s economy into the fourth quarter of 2011.
• Delaware: The leading index for Delaware was 2.0 in April. An increase in the state’s coincident index and a decrease in initial unemployment claims kept the leading index positive. On the other hand, building permits and the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey fell. Delaware’s leading index for April suggests expansion in the state’s economy into the fourth quarter of 2011.

About the Leading Indexes

• The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
• The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.