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Bank Releases February’s Leading Indexes
For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, Senior Media Representative, (215) 574-4119
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for the 50 states for February 2011. The leading indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes.
- Forty-eight state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, and two (Kansas and New Jersey) are projected to decrease.
- For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for our U.S. coincident index, which is projected to grow 1.9 percent over the next six months.
Third District Leading Indexes
- Pennsylvania: The leading index was 3.3 in February. A decrease in initial unemployment claims, an increase in the index of delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing survey, and a positive growth rate in the state's coincident index kept the leading index positive. On the other hand, building permits decreased. Overall, the leading index suggests expansion in the state's economy into the third quarter of 2011.
- New Jersey: The leading index was -0.3 in February. The state's coincident index decreased slightly and building permits fell. However, initial unemployment claims decreased, and the index of delivery times from the ISM manufacturing survey increased. The leading index suggests contraction in the state's economy into the third quarter of 2011.
- Delaware: The leading index was 0.5 in February. The state's coincident index was relatively flat for the month. A decrease in initial unemployment claims and an increase in both building permits and the index of delivery times from the ISM manufacturing survey kept the leading index positive. The leading index for February suggests expansion in the state's economy into the third quarter of 2011
About the Leading Indexes
- The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
- The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.