For release: 10 a.m.,
Contact: Katherine Dibling, senior media representative, (215) 574-4119
The pace of recovery in the U.S. economy looks a little slower now than it did three months ago, according to 43 forecasters who participated in the Fourth Quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters.
The panelists reduced their estimate for growth in real GDP over the next three years, and they also predict weaker recovery in the labor market. The current outlook for headline and core inflation measures is lower than it was in the third quarter. In addition, the forecasters see a lower chance of a downturn over the next few quarters.
Assistant Director and Manager, Real-Time Data Research Center, Tom Stark:
“The forecasters are reducing their estimates for real GDP growth and job gains over the next three years. They are also raising their estimates for the unemployment rate over the same time period.
“The current outlook is not dramatically different from the one of three months ago — but it does represent a downgrading of future prospects. The recession took a terrible toll on unemployment, and the forecasters now see unemployment recovering at an even slower pace than they predicted in the last survey.
“At the same time, the forecasters are trimming their estimates for inflation in 2011 and 2012. However, the forecasters continue to see almost no risk of an outright deflation. All in all, the current outlook is for a slightly softer economy than the forecasters predicted in the last survey.”
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is a quarterly survey of economic forecasters from across the country. Participants are asked to provide their projections for a broad range of macroeconomic variables including real GDP, nonfarm payroll employment, and inflation indicators such as CPI and PCE. It is the oldest survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.