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Philadelphia Fed Releases July's Leading Indexes
For immediate release
Contact: Katherine Dibling, senior media representative, (215) 574-4119
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the leading indexes for July 2010. The new monthly indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes. July’s leading indexes were released today.
About July’s Release
- All but four state coincident indexes (Arizona, Michigan, Montana, and Oregon) are projected to grow over the next six months.
- Alabama is projected to grow strongly (greater than 4.5 percent).
- For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for our U.S. coincident index, which is projected to grow 1.1 percent over the next six months.
- The Pennsylvania and Delaware leading indexes for July were 1.3 and 2.9, respectively. The leading index for New Jersey was 0.0 in July.
About the Leading Indexes
- The Bank has produced leading indexes for the states in the Third Federal Reserve District — Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania — since April 2004.
- The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index.
- The models include the state’s related coincident index and variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the three-month Treasury bill.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.